* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/11/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 119 122 125 125 121 119 114 110 106 106 97 94 86 79 71 V (KT) LAND 115 115 119 122 125 125 121 119 114 82 49 34 29 28 27 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 115 115 117 121 126 129 123 117 105 76 46 33 28 27 27 28 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 3 1 5 6 10 15 19 26 22 15 18 24 20 16 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -3 -1 -4 0 -2 4 -1 0 -4 -4 -4 -6 -5 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 84 80 72 155 202 202 200 231 241 264 264 257 284 252 259 220 305 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.3 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 164 166 164 168 168 158 160 162 156 157 157 157 158 160 159 153 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 153 150 153 151 137 135 133 125 124 123 124 125 126 123 119 114 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -51.7 -50.9 -50.7 -49.8 -49.4 -49.1 -49.2 -49.4 -50.0 -49.8 -49.9 -49.8 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.5 2.3 2.5 2.2 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.1 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 12 12 13 11 11 7 9 5 9 5 8 3 7 4 700-500 MB RH 49 48 47 48 50 48 51 54 57 55 54 48 46 48 50 50 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 29 31 31 33 35 35 38 38 39 39 39 35 34 31 28 22 850 MB ENV VOR 12 10 4 7 14 -8 -4 -9 0 10 30 44 42 55 43 64 82 200 MB DIV 13 0 -25 -10 21 15 35 47 51 17 19 17 -4 2 13 29 -13 700-850 TADV 5 1 -5 -4 7 -4 8 6 2 4 1 6 8 17 11 4 4 LAND (KM) 890 904 919 982 829 531 302 145 52 -20 -83 -128 -215 -337 -412 -460 -512 LAT (DEG N) 26.4 27.1 27.7 28.5 29.3 31.0 32.4 33.5 34.2 34.7 35.1 35.5 36.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.6 66.1 67.6 69.1 70.5 73.0 74.9 76.2 77.0 77.5 78.0 78.5 79.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 15 15 12 9 6 4 3 3 4 5 5 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 43 39 47 38 40 29 41 45 26 28 9 4 4 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. -1. -9. -18. -26. -33. -39. -42. -46. -49. -52. -55. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 3. 6. 5. 6. 5. 6. -2. -3. -7. -12. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 4. 7. 10. 10. 6. 4. -1. -5. -9. -9. -18. -21. -29. -36. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 26.4 64.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/11/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 25.9 to 2.2 0.91 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.28 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.82 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.16 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 879.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.4 30.0 to 128.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.14 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.0% 9.3% 6.6% 4.7% 4.3% 4.7% 7.2% 0.5% Bayesian: 4.4% 6.7% 3.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.6% 5.3% 3.5% 1.7% 1.4% 1.6% 2.4% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/11/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/11/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 33( 54) 38( 71) 38( 82) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 10 9( 18) 11( 27) 2( 29) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 115 119 122 125 125 121 119 114 82 49 34 29 28 27 28 28 18HR AGO 115 114 118 121 124 124 120 118 113 81 48 33 28 27 26 27 27 12HR AGO 115 112 111 114 117 117 113 111 106 74 41 26 21 20 19 20 20 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 108 108 104 102 97 65 32 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 115 106 100 97 96 96 92 90 85 53 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 115 115 106 100 97 95 91 89 84 52 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 115 115 119 110 104 100 96 94 89 57 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS