* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAUL EP182018 09/11/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 24 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 27 24 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 28 25 23 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 9 6 4 2 1 7 16 24 34 40 41 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 5 5 3 12 8 10 10 12 9 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 50 49 58 59 33 272 211 227 241 246 238 238 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.4 25.3 25.1 24.6 24.1 23.8 23.1 23.1 23.4 23.8 24.0 23.4 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 116 113 108 103 99 91 90 93 97 100 94 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.1 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 38 35 32 31 28 28 31 34 38 33 30 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 11 10 8 7 5 5 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 56 61 51 44 36 25 27 25 17 -12 -12 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -17 -22 -10 -10 -16 -3 -15 16 20 18 -4 -2 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 -1 2 1 -1 0 1 0 0 -2 -7 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1016 1076 1141 1206 1275 1396 1489 1559 1606 1649 1701 1770 1847 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.0 22.2 22.4 22.6 22.9 23.1 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.2 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.6 123.6 124.5 125.4 126.3 127.8 128.9 129.8 130.6 131.3 132.1 133.0 134.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 8 6 5 4 4 3 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 5. 2. -0. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 4. -1. -8. -13. -18. -19. -20. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -13. -16. -16. -16. -15. -14. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -12. -17. -21. -25. -28. -34. -40. -47. -55. -57. -60. -65. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.8 122.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182018 PAUL 09/11/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.49 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.72 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.09 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 314.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.34 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.7 56.6 to 0.0 0.69 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.92 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182018 PAUL 09/11/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##