* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/11/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 122 124 126 129 131 128 128 122 116 112 110 105 101 89 80 69 V (KT) LAND 120 122 124 126 129 131 128 128 122 72 41 31 28 28 28 28 29 V (KT) LGEM 120 122 125 128 131 134 126 121 113 67 39 30 28 28 28 28 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 5 5 1 8 12 16 24 26 25 15 19 21 25 15 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 0 -4 -2 -6 -2 -3 2 -1 -5 -5 -4 -5 -6 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 100 86 90 42 329 211 227 224 244 245 263 242 255 239 267 252 272 SST (C) 29.2 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.7 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.2 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 156 166 166 164 168 163 159 163 157 158 157 155 148 145 140 136 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 152 152 149 152 145 136 136 127 126 124 121 116 113 109 105 102 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -52.2 -52.0 -51.8 -50.9 -50.7 -50.1 -49.5 -49.2 -49.3 -49.2 -49.7 -50.0 -50.1 -50.6 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.7 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.2 0.9 1.2 0.7 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 12 12 13 12 11 8 10 5 8 5 8 3 7 4 700-500 MB RH 48 48 49 46 48 48 49 51 56 56 52 48 45 44 46 51 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 30 30 30 32 35 35 40 39 39 39 39 37 36 31 26 21 850 MB ENV VOR 8 13 11 2 8 -1 -8 -7 -2 15 20 40 30 26 0 34 11 200 MB DIV -5 13 10 -23 -19 31 0 43 36 42 21 5 0 8 -3 31 0 700-850 TADV 2 2 -1 0 -2 4 2 7 5 4 1 1 7 4 24 14 11 LAND (KM) 889 920 925 956 963 640 374 176 34 -72 -123 -184 -251 -320 -375 -392 -409 LAT (DEG N) 26.1 26.7 27.3 28.1 28.8 30.5 32.0 33.3 34.4 35.1 35.8 36.3 36.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 63.3 64.7 66.2 67.6 69.1 71.9 74.2 75.8 77.0 77.8 78.4 78.9 79.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 15 15 15 13 11 8 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 34 43 40 48 37 27 43 46 26 14 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. -2. -11. -21. -29. -37. -43. -47. -51. -56. -60. -63. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 7. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. 6. 4. -3. -9. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 8. 8. 2. -4. -8. -9. -15. -19. -31. -40. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 26.1 63.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/11/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.27 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.08 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 933.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.7% 10.5% 7.7% 5.3% 4.5% 7.5% 7.3% 0.9% Bayesian: 4.0% 14.9% 7.3% 1.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.4% 8.5% 5.0% 2.1% 1.6% 2.6% 2.4% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/11/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/11/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 36( 57) 44( 76) 45( 87) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 8 9( 16) 17( 31) 2( 32) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 122 124 126 129 131 128 128 122 72 41 31 28 28 28 28 29 18HR AGO 120 119 121 123 126 128 125 125 119 69 38 28 25 25 25 25 26 12HR AGO 120 117 116 118 121 123 120 120 114 64 33 23 20 20 20 20 21 6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 113 115 112 112 106 56 25 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 120 111 105 102 101 103 100 100 94 44 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 120 122 113 107 104 103 100 100 94 44 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 120 122 124 115 109 105 102 102 96 46 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS