* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAUL EP182018 09/11/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 31 28 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 28 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 32 30 28 23 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 9 9 5 3 4 4 12 17 29 38 43 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 3 6 7 4 9 6 14 12 12 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 58 62 58 69 62 63 181 220 233 247 239 234 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 25.6 25.6 25.3 24.6 23.4 22.9 21.9 22.4 22.6 23.1 23.4 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 119 119 115 108 95 89 79 83 85 90 93 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 42 39 36 33 32 28 29 33 37 36 32 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 13 12 11 9 7 5 5 4 2 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 61 61 67 54 34 30 18 27 19 9 -3 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 -26 -23 -5 -3 -15 5 0 16 38 -2 -8 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 2 0 2 1 -2 0 2 0 -1 -4 -2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 975 1020 1071 1124 1180 1287 1391 1490 1555 1582 1626 1671 1724 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.4 21.7 21.9 22.2 22.4 22.7 23.0 23.3 23.4 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.6 122.5 123.4 124.2 125.1 126.5 127.8 129.0 129.9 130.5 131.2 131.9 132.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 3 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 0. -6. -11. -16. -17. -18. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -12. -14. -16. -17. -16. -15. -14. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -10. -17. -23. -29. -33. -38. -45. -51. -59. -62. -65. -69. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 21.4 121.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182018 PAUL 09/11/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.49 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.61 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.10 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 348.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.42 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.64 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.0 to -2.0 0.94 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182018 PAUL 09/11/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##