* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAUL EP182018 09/10/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 31 28 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 28 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 32 30 28 23 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 10 8 7 5 2 4 10 17 27 37 47 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 2 4 6 4 8 7 8 13 16 9 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 58 68 68 66 64 78 146 200 218 231 236 228 233 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 25.9 25.6 25.5 25.2 23.5 22.9 21.6 21.6 21.6 21.6 21.8 21.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 122 119 118 114 96 89 75 75 74 74 77 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 46 42 39 36 33 30 27 31 33 37 34 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 13 11 11 9 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 57 60 59 65 45 37 31 35 35 29 18 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -13 -5 -26 -20 -7 -15 2 -17 12 24 24 -18 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 3 1 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 -2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 953 981 1016 1065 1118 1233 1331 1425 1499 1516 1550 1587 1632 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.5 21.8 22.1 22.3 22.7 23.1 23.5 23.7 23.9 24.0 24.1 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.9 121.7 122.6 123.5 124.3 125.9 127.2 128.4 129.4 130.0 130.7 131.4 132.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. -0. -5. -9. -12. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 1. -4. -11. -17. -18. -19. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -16. -15. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -10. -16. -23. -28. -33. -37. -42. -50. -60. -64. -67. -73. -77. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 21.1 120.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182018 PAUL 09/10/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.52 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.57 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.09 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 333.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.35 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.7 56.6 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.0 to -2.0 0.97 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182018 PAUL 09/10/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##