* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/10/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 61 59 58 55 49 43 40 39 39 41 42 42 42 43 44 V (KT) LAND 65 63 61 59 58 55 49 43 40 39 39 41 42 42 42 43 44 V (KT) LGEM 65 62 60 58 57 55 50 45 42 40 39 39 41 43 47 51 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 10 13 15 21 29 31 33 35 33 16 18 16 20 13 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 7 7 9 6 9 4 0 -3 -7 -7 -3 -4 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 326 264 226 237 252 254 267 267 276 266 251 239 312 302 303 275 276 SST (C) 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.5 27.0 27.4 26.9 27.7 27.8 28.2 27.8 28.0 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 129 127 126 129 134 138 133 142 143 147 143 145 149 149 149 150 150 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 -53.3 -53.8 -54.3 -54.9 -55.2 -55.4 -55.5 -55.8 -55.4 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 -0.2 0.0 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 8 8 9 10 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 28 29 29 30 31 33 32 36 40 43 44 46 51 55 58 59 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 17 17 16 16 13 11 11 12 13 15 15 15 15 14 15 850 MB ENV VOR 12 23 25 31 39 57 58 70 69 75 72 80 76 59 45 45 47 200 MB DIV 1 7 -14 1 4 -15 -25 -20 -27 4 10 10 0 5 2 8 17 700-850 TADV 3 4 0 1 0 0 -3 -5 -1 -1 5 10 -1 -4 -2 -6 -6 LAND (KM) 726 630 535 432 333 131 28 175 258 485 720 975 1236 1511 1798 2076 2364 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 21.6 21.5 21.4 21.3 20.9 20.5 20.1 20.0 20.0 20.3 20.8 21.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 148.2 149.2 150.1 151.2 152.2 154.4 156.8 159.2 161.8 164.5 167.0 169.6 172.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 13 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 3 1 1 3 9 8 4 22 32 30 21 23 30 32 20 36 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -5. -9. -14. -18. -19. -19. -19. -20. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -9. -11. -10. -8. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. -16. -22. -25. -26. -26. -24. -23. -23. -23. -22. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 21.7 148.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/10/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.32 2.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.52 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.17 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 733.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.01 -0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.88 4.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.72 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.57 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.62 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.6% 17.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 0.8% 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 8.5% 6.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/10/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##