* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAUL EP182018 09/10/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 30 27 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 33 30 27 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 33 30 27 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 14 11 9 6 5 3 4 10 14 24 37 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 3 4 2 6 2 7 6 7 11 12 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 75 66 60 65 55 80 195 194 215 220 232 239 227 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.8 26.4 26.0 25.6 25.3 23.7 23.0 21.9 21.9 22.4 23.0 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 127 123 119 115 98 91 79 78 83 90 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 54 51 48 43 37 32 30 28 31 35 35 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 13 12 10 8 6 5 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 75 58 51 55 58 64 51 43 44 40 40 37 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 -20 -20 -15 -20 -5 -16 10 -10 18 4 18 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 0 2 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 934 957 977 998 1024 1124 1239 1345 1443 1518 1561 1623 1689 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.3 20.8 21.2 21.6 22.2 22.6 23.0 23.3 23.5 23.6 23.6 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.6 120.3 120.9 121.7 122.5 124.3 125.9 127.3 128.5 129.4 130.3 131.3 132.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 1. -4. -10. -10. -11. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -13. -15. -18. -18. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -10. -15. -21. -26. -30. -34. -38. -43. -51. -53. -55. -58. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.8 119.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182018 PAUL 09/10/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.59 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.40 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.09 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 285.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.73 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182018 PAUL 09/10/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##