* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/10/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 76 75 73 67 61 52 45 40 38 33 31 28 28 30 33 V (KT) LAND 75 76 76 75 73 67 61 52 45 40 38 33 31 28 28 30 33 V (KT) LGEM 75 77 77 76 74 70 65 57 50 44 39 35 32 30 30 31 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 4 4 10 14 19 25 29 33 38 41 35 33 28 22 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 0 1 2 9 11 8 11 5 0 -3 -2 -8 -7 -6 -4 SHEAR DIR 284 315 302 263 239 238 239 255 263 269 264 256 243 244 239 252 259 SST (C) 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.4 26.3 27.3 27.4 27.2 27.7 28.0 28.2 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 126 128 129 127 126 137 138 136 142 145 147 144 147 150 149 150 153 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -54.9 -55.8 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 28 28 28 29 29 29 31 34 35 39 41 41 44 48 52 59 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 20 18 18 17 16 13 11 11 11 10 10 8 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 18 15 21 29 26 39 52 53 72 68 69 64 64 45 34 27 30 200 MB DIV 6 6 -5 -5 -4 4 -2 -25 -6 -19 9 7 9 3 22 11 43 700-850 TADV 4 3 3 4 1 0 0 -3 -3 0 1 5 9 10 8 8 3 LAND (KM) 895 794 693 597 502 289 89 62 228 327 539 773 999 1235 1521 1861 2192 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 21.7 21.6 21.5 21.4 21.0 20.7 20.2 19.8 19.5 19.5 19.9 20.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 146.5 147.5 148.5 149.5 150.4 152.5 154.8 157.1 159.6 162.2 164.8 167.4 169.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 13 15 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 3 1 1 13 8 11 21 36 30 22 23 30 31 21 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -11. -15. -19. -22. -24. -24. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -12. -13. -13. -14. -12. -13. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -0. -2. -8. -14. -23. -30. -35. -37. -42. -44. -47. -47. -45. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 21.7 146.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/10/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.21 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.69 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 869.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.72 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 53.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.05 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.36 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 0.5% 1.2% 0.8% 0.4% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.7% 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/10/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##