* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/10/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 90 95 100 102 109 117 122 120 122 117 111 99 93 80 72 64 V (KT) LAND 85 90 95 100 102 109 117 122 120 122 99 54 36 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 85 92 97 103 110 122 129 129 121 115 90 51 34 29 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 3 4 5 4 7 10 12 17 21 20 17 26 15 15 9 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -2 -5 -7 -5 -7 -4 -5 -8 -2 -1 -9 -3 -3 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 220 227 127 119 119 104 195 198 225 218 234 241 285 273 293 277 280 SST (C) 28.5 28.8 29.1 29.1 29.4 29.7 29.4 29.1 29.5 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 148 154 154 160 166 160 155 161 156 157 157 155 154 154 152 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 133 139 141 147 152 146 138 139 131 128 125 121 119 118 117 116 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -52.0 -51.6 -50.8 -50.8 -50.3 -49.7 -49.2 -49.3 -49.8 -50.4 -50.9 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.5 1.5 1.3 2.1 1.8 2.1 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.5 -0.2 0.9 0.6 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 11 8 10 6 9 5 8 6 700-500 MB RH 48 52 51 51 49 51 48 47 48 54 55 54 53 51 56 62 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 26 28 26 30 34 37 36 40 40 38 33 31 24 19 15 850 MB ENV VOR 5 19 21 24 14 22 9 14 1 11 10 28 25 50 24 27 0 200 MB DIV -19 0 -3 -22 -15 31 -16 26 8 40 53 54 3 17 -17 2 -2 700-850 TADV -1 -6 -7 -5 1 2 2 3 2 9 4 0 6 9 2 5 5 LAND (KM) 1044 994 953 917 903 925 949 630 350 146 -23 -127 -192 -222 -227 -221 -209 LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.1 25.4 25.8 26.2 27.3 28.8 30.4 32.0 33.3 34.3 35.0 35.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.4 59.5 60.5 61.8 63.2 66.2 69.3 72.2 74.7 76.6 78.0 78.8 79.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 13 14 15 15 14 12 9 6 4 3 2 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 32 39 37 30 36 38 35 24 44 33 28 6 4 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -17. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 1. 4. 10. 14. 13. 18. 17. 14. 6. 2. -7. -13. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 17. 24. 32. 37. 35. 37. 32. 26. 14. 8. -5. -13. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 24.8 58.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/10/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.80 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 25.9 to 2.2 0.88 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.24 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.56 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.62 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.40 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 595.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.25 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.23 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.08 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.2 95.0 to 0.0 0.86 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.5% 18.0% 13.2% 12.7% 6.4% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.0% 27.1% 21.3% 10.1% 5.1% 17.1% 20.0% 11.6% Bayesian: 12.2% 44.9% 26.3% 4.2% 1.7% 11.7% 0.6% 0.3% Consensus: 11.9% 30.0% 20.3% 9.0% 4.4% 13.1% 6.9% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/10/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/10/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 17( 25) 24( 43) 28( 59) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 10( 11) 6( 16) 4( 20) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 90 95 100 102 109 117 122 120 122 99 54 36 30 28 27 27 18HR AGO 85 84 89 94 96 103 111 116 114 116 93 48 30 24 22 21 21 12HR AGO 85 82 81 86 88 95 103 108 106 108 85 40 22 16 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 77 84 92 97 95 97 74 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 73 81 86 84 86 63 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 90 81 75 72 71 79 84 82 84 61 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 90 95 86 80 76 84 89 87 89 66 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS