* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/10/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 71 73 74 76 74 72 68 66 63 64 65 69 71 75 77 V (KT) LAND 65 69 71 73 74 76 74 72 68 66 63 64 65 69 71 75 77 V (KT) LGEM 65 69 72 75 77 80 80 77 71 63 56 51 48 49 51 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 4 9 8 4 11 15 26 25 33 24 21 14 16 8 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 4 5 4 6 7 7 3 0 0 3 5 5 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 87 325 344 360 349 317 285 296 293 302 310 334 343 8 55 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.0 27.1 27.5 28.0 28.4 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 29.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 125 127 126 127 132 138 144 149 150 152 152 150 150 153 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 119 122 124 123 124 130 137 143 149 150 152 152 150 150 153 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.5 -53.3 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.6 -0.7 -0.8 -0.6 -0.2 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 12 12 13 12 13 11 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 48 47 47 47 45 46 49 49 49 45 48 53 57 60 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 17 17 17 18 17 17 15 14 12 11 9 8 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 105 94 89 78 79 59 47 36 22 17 22 28 36 52 50 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -13 4 8 15 18 23 23 19 -22 -5 -2 -9 -5 4 36 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 -3 -8 -6 -1 -2 -7 -10 -9 -10 -14 -7 -2 -2 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1626 1542 1464 1369 1283 1149 1050 798 581 524 300 274 237 312 301 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.9 14.9 15.0 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 41.0 42.3 43.6 45.1 46.5 49.4 52.3 55.1 58.1 61.4 64.6 67.8 71.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 8 12 9 9 21 15 19 33 46 58 51 54 83 49 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 1. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -10. -15. -17. -20. -21. -24. -23. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 9. 7. 3. 1. -2. -1. 0. 4. 6. 10. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 14.6 41.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/10/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 8.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 25.9 to 2.2 0.86 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.06 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.75 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.93 3.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.47 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 493.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.36 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.28 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.17 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 95.0 to 0.0 0.91 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.6% 24.7% 23.2% 19.9% 7.4% 16.0% 13.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.3% 19.3% 15.9% 10.1% 4.8% 10.8% 2.9% 1.3% Bayesian: 3.8% 15.3% 8.6% 0.7% 0.4% 3.7% 0.7% 0.1% Consensus: 8.5% 19.8% 15.9% 10.2% 4.2% 10.2% 5.5% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/10/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/10/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 4( 6) 5( 11) 5( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 69 71 73 74 76 74 72 68 66 63 64 65 69 71 75 77 18HR AGO 65 64 66 68 69 71 69 67 63 61 58 59 60 64 66 70 72 12HR AGO 65 62 61 63 64 66 64 62 58 56 53 54 55 59 61 65 67 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 56 58 56 54 50 48 45 46 47 51 53 57 59 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT