* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/09/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 70 75 80 83 90 88 82 74 68 58 51 46 43 45 46 48 V (KT) LAND 65 70 75 80 83 90 88 82 74 68 58 51 46 43 45 46 48 V (KT) LGEM 65 70 75 78 82 87 84 76 69 61 54 49 45 42 40 42 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 8 10 9 1 9 16 18 22 33 43 38 40 28 24 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 0 -1 0 7 8 3 7 8 9 -1 0 -2 4 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 74 71 85 59 52 177 206 206 209 209 198 205 212 214 216 238 248 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.2 26.4 26.1 26.0 25.8 25.9 26.3 26.2 27.2 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 132 132 128 118 115 114 112 113 118 117 128 133 134 133 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 131 131 130 126 114 109 106 104 104 109 107 115 117 115 113 110 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.4 -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.0 -52.3 -53.2 -53.6 -53.8 -54.8 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 68 68 71 68 68 67 64 59 52 50 49 49 52 57 57 54 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 30 32 30 33 33 31 29 29 26 25 24 24 27 29 30 850 MB ENV VOR 72 64 57 50 42 27 28 40 56 69 68 71 65 34 7 -24 -50 200 MB DIV 54 51 50 41 31 10 14 14 54 21 35 26 43 25 36 14 -9 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -1 -6 -6 2 7 7 4 6 18 28 24 27 19 14 13 LAND (KM) 878 1021 1167 1314 1462 1739 1965 2088 2100 2155 2261 2443 2355 2072 1809 1560 1315 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.5 15.2 16.1 17.1 18.5 20.1 22.1 24.6 27.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 25.5 26.9 28.3 29.7 31.1 33.7 35.8 37.5 38.9 40.1 41.2 42.2 42.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 14 14 14 12 10 10 10 10 13 13 14 13 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 8 11 7 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 5 10 8 9 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 2. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 1. 3. 2. 0. -3. -5. -10. -12. -13. -14. -10. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 9. 6. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 18. 25. 23. 17. 9. 3. -7. -14. -19. -22. -20. -18. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 13.3 25.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/09/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 7.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 25.9 to 2.2 0.71 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.05 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.63 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.93 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.45 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 266.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.62 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.35 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.37 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.9% 25.8% 19.7% 15.6% 6.9% 14.6% 12.7% 0.0% Logistic: 9.4% 20.3% 11.1% 5.7% 4.2% 5.3% 5.0% 0.5% Bayesian: 16.8% 51.1% 17.6% 5.1% 5.4% 10.4% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 12.7% 32.4% 16.1% 8.8% 5.5% 10.1% 6.0% 0.2% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/09/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 5( 7) 9( 15) 12( 25) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 70 75 80 83 90 88 82 74 68 58 51 46 43 45 46 48 18HR AGO 65 64 69 74 77 84 82 76 68 62 52 45 40 37 39 40 42 12HR AGO 65 62 61 66 69 76 74 68 60 54 44 37 32 29 31 32 34 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 58 65 63 57 49 43 33 26 21 18 20 21 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT