* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/09/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 61 64 66 70 72 72 72 69 65 63 62 62 64 65 67 V (KT) LAND 55 59 61 64 66 70 72 72 72 69 65 63 62 62 64 65 67 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 63 66 69 75 79 81 79 72 63 54 47 42 40 40 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 5 3 7 1 10 15 26 28 36 26 29 21 21 16 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 1 4 7 4 6 4 0 -2 2 3 2 6 2 3 SHEAR DIR 32 25 64 13 7 18 316 288 297 296 307 315 326 351 360 21 12 SST (C) 27.0 27.1 26.9 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.5 27.8 28.4 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 124 125 123 124 127 128 132 136 144 148 150 151 151 151 150 150 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 121 119 120 124 126 130 135 144 148 150 151 151 151 148 149 151 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.2 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 12 11 12 11 12 10 10 8 700-500 MB RH 55 53 51 50 48 48 47 47 51 50 54 52 55 58 62 65 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 17 18 17 17 17 16 16 15 13 11 10 7 6 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 103 105 97 93 93 81 61 46 25 17 -4 -6 5 19 24 38 38 200 MB DIV 9 -15 -6 21 12 21 11 21 37 2 17 3 -9 -25 5 13 46 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -5 -7 1 -2 -5 -4 -10 -7 -10 -7 -2 -1 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1793 1710 1632 1541 1456 1276 1127 1013 816 575 453 463 322 322 267 302 270 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.6 39.6 40.7 41.9 43.2 46.0 48.8 51.6 54.5 57.4 60.2 63.0 65.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 7 6 9 9 22 15 19 28 47 37 65 45 57 85 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 6. 4. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -10. -13. -17. -20. -23. -23. -25. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 9. 11. 15. 17. 17. 17. 14. 10. 8. 7. 7. 9. 10. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.3 38.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/09/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 7.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 25.9 to 2.2 0.87 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.71 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.53 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 364.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.51 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.4 30.0 to 128.0 0.36 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.16 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.1% 28.8% 22.2% 20.4% 7.1% 23.6% 22.5% 14.5% Logistic: 9.3% 18.5% 21.4% 12.4% 2.8% 9.3% 2.8% 1.0% Bayesian: 4.7% 9.7% 10.8% 1.0% 0.5% 5.6% 5.0% 0.3% Consensus: 8.7% 19.0% 18.1% 11.3% 3.4% 12.8% 10.1% 5.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/09/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/09/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 4( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 59 61 64 66 70 72 72 72 69 65 63 62 62 64 65 67 18HR AGO 55 54 56 59 61 65 67 67 67 64 60 58 57 57 59 60 62 12HR AGO 55 52 51 54 56 60 62 62 62 59 55 53 52 52 54 55 57 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 47 51 53 53 53 50 46 44 43 43 45 46 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT