* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAUL EP182018 09/09/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 36 36 34 32 30 29 26 24 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 36 36 34 32 30 29 26 24 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 37 36 33 29 26 22 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 17 12 12 7 4 1 4 8 13 18 28 36 50 58 60 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 4 6 3 3 2 6 1 4 1 5 6 10 10 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 67 67 69 82 90 48 43 135 248 230 233 238 242 245 242 240 237 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.8 27.8 27.6 26.8 26.0 25.9 24.3 23.2 22.6 22.3 22.4 22.8 23.6 23.8 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 142 142 140 131 123 122 105 94 87 83 84 88 96 98 95 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.6 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 62 60 59 59 55 51 43 38 33 32 32 35 38 36 32 26 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 19 17 18 17 15 13 12 10 8 7 8 6 5 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 74 67 65 75 69 55 63 65 57 35 48 42 46 38 36 13 4 200 MB DIV 57 41 38 32 8 -6 -16 -10 -22 4 1 11 1 19 -22 -23 -24 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -5 0 0 2 1 1 0 2 1 2 2 3 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 1021 1004 985 969 961 1017 1085 1182 1309 1442 1555 1599 1646 1699 1758 1814 1890 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.4 18.0 18.7 19.3 20.4 21.1 21.7 22.3 22.9 23.4 23.8 24.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.3 117.9 118.4 119.0 119.5 121.0 122.8 124.6 126.5 128.3 129.9 131.2 132.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 12 14 15 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 15. 15. 15. 13. 10. 6. 3. 2. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. -1. -5. -11. -20. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -8. -11. -12. -13. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -11. -16. -19. -27. -35. -47. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.8 117.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182018 PAUL 09/09/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.71 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.14 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.37 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 205.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.66 -3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.31 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.09 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.0 to -2.0 0.95 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 18.8% 13.5% 9.5% 0.0% 13.3% 13.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 6.5% 4.6% 3.2% 0.0% 4.5% 4.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182018 PAUL 09/09/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##