* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/09/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 56 59 63 68 74 80 81 81 77 75 71 72 72 77 76 V (KT) LAND 45 51 56 59 63 68 74 80 81 81 77 75 71 72 72 77 76 V (KT) LGEM 45 51 57 62 67 75 81 87 89 87 79 70 62 56 51 50 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 6 6 3 8 4 12 10 21 23 31 27 25 15 17 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -1 0 0 2 4 3 9 8 5 1 2 1 1 5 2 SHEAR DIR 78 77 61 62 58 351 28 333 299 305 291 300 300 319 334 352 27 SST (C) 26.7 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.9 27.3 27.9 28.1 28.4 28.3 28.6 28.9 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 119 122 123 123 122 124 129 137 139 144 142 147 151 153 150 148 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 115 117 119 118 121 126 136 138 143 141 146 149 151 148 147 141 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -52.8 -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.0 -53.1 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 12 13 12 12 10 11 700-500 MB RH 58 55 54 53 50 47 48 48 48 52 52 53 50 52 53 57 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 17 17 17 17 18 17 18 15 15 12 12 9 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 108 104 99 105 107 100 91 75 57 35 26 5 10 16 24 27 31 200 MB DIV 38 50 22 -2 15 36 19 17 7 14 -14 6 -4 3 -13 1 8 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 1 0 -6 -1 -5 -6 -9 -10 -7 -11 -3 -1 -1 2 LAND (KM) 1927 1862 1799 1710 1625 1451 1276 1122 1005 839 598 456 478 333 298 286 292 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.5 14.7 15.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 37.1 37.9 38.7 39.8 40.9 43.4 46.0 48.7 51.5 54.2 57.0 59.7 62.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 11 11 13 13 14 13 14 13 13 12 13 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 8 10 12 10 5 6 10 27 18 19 24 36 32 65 50 48 80 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. 21. 22. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 8. 7. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -8. -9. -13. -15. -17. -17. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 14. 18. 23. 29. 35. 36. 36. 32. 30. 26. 27. 27. 32. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.4 37.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/09/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.80 8.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.85 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.06 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.58 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.58 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 244.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.65 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.42 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.26 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.4% 27.9% 21.2% 13.4% 6.3% 16.9% 24.5% 26.6% Logistic: 20.2% 34.9% 33.2% 17.5% 4.5% 19.7% 7.8% 5.9% Bayesian: 32.6% 3.8% 39.3% 15.6% 2.5% 28.4% 7.4% 3.4% Consensus: 21.1% 22.2% 31.2% 15.5% 4.4% 21.7% 13.2% 12.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/09/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/09/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 51 56 59 63 68 74 80 81 81 77 75 71 72 72 77 76 18HR AGO 45 44 49 52 56 61 67 73 74 74 70 68 64 65 65 70 69 12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 48 53 59 65 66 66 62 60 56 57 57 62 61 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 39 44 50 56 57 57 53 51 47 48 48 53 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT