* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN EP182018 09/08/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 36 38 43 45 47 46 46 43 37 30 23 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 36 38 43 45 47 46 46 43 37 30 23 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 32 31 30 28 27 26 24 22 18 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 17 16 14 16 8 9 8 6 2 5 10 18 27 29 35 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 5 6 7 5 1 0 -4 0 4 8 11 9 12 4 SHEAR DIR 43 60 65 64 66 45 27 47 58 183 220 253 232 228 235 236 235 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.7 28.1 27.5 26.7 26.0 25.0 23.9 23.1 22.9 23.4 23.4 23.5 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 139 138 140 144 138 130 123 112 100 92 90 95 94 95 99 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -53.4 -53.7 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 66 62 60 60 57 54 50 40 40 34 32 32 33 31 29 28 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 20 20 23 23 24 23 23 21 20 19 16 14 11 8 5 850 MB ENV VOR 62 75 90 85 79 86 78 77 91 75 68 65 70 70 60 41 13 200 MB DIV 52 76 57 34 27 51 -21 -46 -14 -1 11 16 3 6 11 -12 8 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -3 -3 -4 0 -1 -2 -3 -2 1 2 6 4 4 0 2 LAND (KM) 1068 1072 1082 1066 1048 1021 1059 1127 1200 1288 1383 1471 1537 1600 1680 1752 1826 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.0 16.4 17.0 17.5 18.7 19.7 20.4 21.1 21.9 22.6 23.3 23.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.5 117.1 117.7 118.2 118.7 119.7 121.0 122.6 124.3 126.0 127.5 128.8 130.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 13 11 9 8 10 22 13 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 474 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 19. 22. 22. 22. 19. 17. 14. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -10. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 13. 15. 17. 16. 16. 13. 7. -0. -7. -16. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.5 116.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182018 EIGHTEEN 09/08/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.76 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.02 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.45 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 148.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.73 -3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.24 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.0 to -2.0 0.97 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 11.8% 11.5% 8.7% 0.0% 11.1% 11.8% 12.2% Logistic: 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.1% 3.9% 2.9% 0.0% 3.7% 4.0% 4.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182018 EIGHTEEN 09/08/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##