* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/08/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 71 69 66 65 62 60 56 51 46 39 34 32 31 30 30 31 V (KT) LAND 75 71 69 66 65 62 60 56 51 46 39 34 32 31 30 30 31 V (KT) LGEM 75 71 68 65 63 62 61 59 57 53 47 42 39 36 34 33 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 3 7 9 3 5 11 18 19 28 33 33 29 25 19 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 -6 -5 0 2 7 8 9 10 4 2 2 -1 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 9 1 320 321 342 345 275 241 264 262 252 255 267 261 270 271 260 SST (C) 25.2 24.9 25.4 25.4 25.7 26.2 26.2 26.4 27.0 26.8 26.8 28.0 27.9 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 116 113 118 118 121 125 125 127 134 132 132 145 144 147 148 148 151 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.5 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.7 -52.8 -53.3 -53.8 -54.4 -54.5 -55.0 -55.2 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 33 34 35 31 30 29 28 29 32 33 38 40 39 38 39 39 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 21 19 19 19 19 17 15 13 11 9 9 9 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 43 49 51 31 20 6 13 26 27 39 54 61 56 56 55 51 44 200 MB DIV 2 -2 -2 0 13 5 7 -5 -6 -19 -29 -1 -4 -13 -11 -17 -18 700-850 TADV -1 4 2 -5 -4 3 1 0 -5 -4 -2 -2 -7 0 0 2 2 LAND (KM) 1689 1552 1414 1283 1152 928 726 535 321 99 68 235 312 459 683 972 1272 LAT (DEG N) 21.6 21.7 21.8 21.9 21.9 21.8 21.7 21.5 21.1 20.6 20.1 19.5 19.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 138.7 140.0 141.4 142.7 144.0 146.2 148.2 150.1 152.2 154.5 156.8 159.3 161.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 9 10 11 12 11 11 11 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 1 7 5 5 25 36 36 25 23 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -3. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -15. -15. -14. -13. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -9. -10. -13. -15. -19. -24. -29. -36. -41. -43. -44. -45. -45. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 21.6 138.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/08/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.12 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.69 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.18 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 783.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.72 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 50.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.12 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/08/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##