* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092018 09/08/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 47 51 58 63 69 73 75 74 72 70 69 69 73 75 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 47 51 58 63 69 73 75 74 72 70 69 69 73 75 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 45 49 58 64 70 73 74 71 66 59 53 48 46 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 5 5 4 5 8 10 12 16 22 28 30 26 23 16 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -5 -2 0 2 6 3 9 9 11 2 3 0 1 1 8 SHEAR DIR 77 74 72 51 71 302 336 315 334 300 308 296 297 307 329 339 17 SST (C) 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.8 27.0 27.6 28.1 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.8 29.0 28.7 28.7 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 118 119 121 123 123 123 126 133 140 144 142 145 150 153 149 149 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 112 115 117 119 120 123 131 139 143 141 144 150 153 149 149 144 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.3 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.6 -0.9 -0.9 -0.7 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 13 12 13 12 11 700-500 MB RH 58 58 55 52 51 49 47 48 48 50 51 52 49 49 48 51 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 18 17 18 17 18 18 18 17 15 13 12 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 93 106 103 94 97 92 78 79 60 43 32 19 12 28 26 22 28 200 MB DIV 34 45 38 13 -12 9 -5 25 -15 -1 10 -5 0 -1 4 2 12 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 2 -3 -5 -3 -6 -6 -10 -12 -10 -5 -4 0 0 LAND (KM) 1976 1946 1889 1809 1733 1549 1358 1184 1040 906 657 466 415 386 342 296 330 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.6 14.5 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.3 37.0 37.7 38.7 39.7 42.2 44.9 47.6 50.5 53.5 56.2 58.8 61.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 10 11 13 14 14 14 14 13 13 14 15 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 5 7 9 11 10 5 8 17 26 18 21 35 33 57 45 51 78 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 461 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 19. 22. 24. 26. 29. 30. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -0. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -11. -14. -16. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 12. 16. 23. 28. 34. 38. 40. 39. 37. 35. 34. 34. 38. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.5 36.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 NINE 09/08/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 25.9 to 2.2 0.86 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.50 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.67 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 188.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.71 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.51 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.26 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 17.1% 11.7% 8.3% 4.9% 9.8% 12.9% 18.0% Logistic: 10.3% 31.6% 27.2% 11.8% 3.6% 15.0% 8.1% 9.5% Bayesian: 5.3% 9.7% 7.0% 0.8% 0.2% 3.3% 14.9% 5.0% Consensus: 7.2% 19.5% 15.3% 6.9% 2.9% 9.4% 12.0% 10.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 NINE 09/08/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 NINE 09/08/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 44 47 51 58 63 69 73 75 74 72 70 69 69 73 75 18HR AGO 35 34 39 42 46 53 58 64 68 70 69 67 65 64 64 68 70 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 38 45 50 56 60 62 61 59 57 56 56 60 62 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 36 41 47 51 53 52 50 48 47 47 51 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT