* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/08/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 66 68 71 76 84 87 95 102 105 104 102 104 100 99 95 V (KT) LAND 60 63 66 68 71 76 84 87 95 102 105 104 102 104 58 37 30 V (KT) LGEM 60 63 65 68 71 79 92 104 115 120 117 111 103 95 55 35 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 8 6 2 4 2 3 3 7 10 19 27 25 28 30 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 3 3 0 -2 0 -3 -1 -1 -2 -5 -9 -9 -6 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 235 225 255 276 250 196 107 99 81 236 189 208 218 237 244 267 261 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.4 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.4 28.9 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 131 133 133 136 140 142 152 158 160 160 152 154 152 151 151 151 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 115 115 119 123 126 139 145 147 147 135 135 129 124 122 121 119 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.7 -54.8 -54.9 -54.5 -54.3 -53.5 -53.2 -52.3 -51.9 -51.1 -51.0 -50.8 -50.6 -50.1 -50.3 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 1.0 0.7 1.5 1.3 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 8 10 7 10 700-500 MB RH 47 48 48 50 49 50 52 49 49 48 51 53 57 58 57 55 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 21 21 22 26 25 28 32 34 34 35 39 40 44 45 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -8 -5 -9 -11 0 24 18 16 18 22 10 12 12 25 37 36 200 MB DIV -6 -34 -36 -2 5 -27 4 -19 22 -11 44 32 22 21 35 36 31 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -2 -2 -1 -8 0 0 2 5 2 3 0 0 -4 -2 LAND (KM) 1354 1310 1266 1214 1163 1060 941 872 872 919 701 428 206 24 -105 -211 -292 LAT (DEG N) 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.7 24.7 25.0 25.4 26.0 26.9 28.0 29.3 30.7 32.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.5 55.0 55.5 56.1 56.8 58.4 60.7 63.5 66.5 69.8 72.8 75.5 77.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 6 7 9 12 14 15 15 14 12 10 7 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 14 15 16 19 24 30 35 34 38 40 25 32 54 18 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 14. 11. 9. 7. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 3. 7. 12. 13. 13. 13. 16. 16. 19. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 16. 24. 27. 35. 42. 45. 44. 42. 44. 40. 39. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 24.6 54.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/08/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 6.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.89 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.12 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.69 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.98 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.43 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 434.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.43 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.27 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.07 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.8 95.0 to 0.0 0.70 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 21.2% 18.8% 14.4% 6.9% 18.2% 19.5% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 17.9% 13.1% 5.4% 2.7% 9.4% 9.3% 13.6% Bayesian: 0.5% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 3.9% 13.8% 10.8% 6.6% 3.2% 9.3% 9.6% 4.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/08/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/08/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 4( 7) 5( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 63 66 68 71 76 84 87 95 102 105 104 102 104 58 37 30 18HR AGO 60 59 62 64 67 72 80 83 91 98 101 100 98 100 54 33 26 12HR AGO 60 57 56 58 61 66 74 77 85 92 95 94 92 94 48 27 20 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 53 58 66 69 77 84 87 86 84 86 40 19 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT