* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092018 09/08/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 38 45 55 62 68 72 76 75 72 73 70 71 72 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 38 45 55 62 68 72 76 75 72 73 70 71 72 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 42 49 57 64 69 71 68 64 60 55 51 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 9 8 7 4 5 2 4 7 7 12 15 24 28 28 18 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -2 -2 -4 -1 2 6 3 8 5 11 1 1 -3 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 109 103 90 101 100 75 28 13 288 269 271 283 287 296 291 304 287 SST (C) 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.8 27.0 26.8 26.9 27.3 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 119 118 119 119 121 124 122 124 129 137 139 142 142 148 150 151 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 109 110 112 114 119 118 120 125 135 138 140 139 147 150 151 151 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.2 -53.5 -53.0 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 11 12 12 13 12 700-500 MB RH 61 60 61 61 59 53 51 51 53 52 50 52 52 46 48 44 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 15 16 17 17 18 17 17 17 18 17 15 16 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 92 81 84 95 92 89 77 67 65 48 35 33 31 18 36 47 68 200 MB DIV 39 32 30 36 40 5 5 -8 25 22 4 0 -4 26 2 18 18 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 2 -2 -1 -2 -4 -6 -4 -7 -5 -2 -2 1 LAND (KM) 1905 1953 1959 1953 1899 1750 1589 1426 1267 1133 1034 845 648 541 426 255 283 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.3 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.7 15.0 15.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.2 35.7 36.1 36.8 37.5 39.3 41.5 43.9 46.3 48.9 51.6 54.5 57.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 7 8 10 11 12 12 13 14 13 13 14 15 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 6 7 9 12 5 7 11 28 17 18 25 36 32 73 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 25. 28. 30. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. 9. 6. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -2. -5. -9. -7. -11. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 25. 32. 38. 42. 46. 45. 42. 43. 40. 41. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.2 35.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 NINE 09/08/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 25.9 to 2.2 0.75 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.03 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.86 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 128.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.78 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.52 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.32 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 12.5% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 11.1% 0.0% Logistic: 4.4% 18.1% 8.7% 1.6% 0.7% 5.4% 7.3% 8.6% Bayesian: 1.8% 3.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 1.3% 4.7% Consensus: 3.1% 11.2% 6.1% 0.5% 0.2% 4.6% 6.6% 4.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 NINE 09/08/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 NINE 09/08/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 35 38 45 55 62 68 72 76 75 72 73 70 71 72 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 36 43 53 60 66 70 74 73 70 71 68 69 70 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 38 48 55 61 65 69 68 65 66 63 64 65 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 30 40 47 53 57 61 60 57 58 55 56 57 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT