* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/08/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 55 51 49 45 39 36 33 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 55 51 49 45 39 36 33 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 57 53 49 44 36 30 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 47 48 51 48 47 52 40 29 28 30 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 -2 0 6 -2 -5 4 0 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 234 235 238 240 240 238 252 263 335 16 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 26.2 26.2 26.2 25.8 25.2 24.8 24.7 24.1 23.5 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 125 125 124 120 114 110 108 102 96 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 -53.6 -54.7 -55.3 -55.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.8 1.2 -0.5 -1.1 -0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 38 37 34 35 31 31 31 32 37 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 17 18 17 16 16 16 14 10 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -7 -6 -11 -19 -29 -53 -86 -116 -143 -166 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 -2 0 12 34 13 -17 -7 -48 -51 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 19 19 21 16 12 9 8 12 7 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 520 557 601 659 715 862 1010 1145 1259 1371 1484 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.6 25.3 26.0 26.7 27.4 28.9 30.3 31.6 32.9 34.2 35.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 153.1 153.6 154.1 154.4 154.7 154.8 154.7 154.6 155.1 156.0 156.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -18. -20. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -5. -8. -10. -14. -19. -25. -34. -43. -48. -52. -56. -60. -65. -71. -75. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 10. 9. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 8. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -5. -11. -15. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -11. -15. -21. -24. -27. -39. -58. -73. -78. -83. -90. -96.-103.-107. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 24.6 153.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/08/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.32 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 48.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 514.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.28 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 34.4 to 2.3 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.08 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/08/18 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING