* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092018 09/08/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 38 46 56 64 72 77 76 80 76 78 74 74 76 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 38 46 56 64 72 77 76 80 76 78 74 74 76 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 33 35 41 48 57 65 71 73 72 69 65 60 57 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 10 9 7 6 2 8 4 10 10 15 17 24 22 20 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -4 0 -2 -1 0 0 3 1 5 8 4 -2 0 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 99 100 98 97 105 48 41 346 322 320 264 285 277 294 284 303 287 SST (C) 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.0 26.8 27.0 27.5 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 117 118 119 120 121 124 122 125 131 136 137 138 141 144 148 150 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 108 110 112 114 118 117 121 128 134 135 137 140 144 148 150 149 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.1 -53.4 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 11 11 12 11 12 11 12 700-500 MB RH 60 62 62 62 61 56 55 52 53 54 51 53 50 50 48 51 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 15 16 18 19 18 20 20 18 20 17 19 16 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 96 90 85 90 96 91 97 86 80 67 45 29 21 21 29 43 52 200 MB DIV 41 44 39 39 53 23 18 10 26 30 23 1 10 11 -20 10 14 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 -3 -1 -2 -4 -4 -6 -2 -4 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 1887 1923 1948 1938 1931 1802 1640 1472 1310 1155 1052 965 718 534 499 300 298 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.0 35.3 35.7 36.3 36.9 38.4 40.4 42.7 45.1 47.6 50.2 53.0 55.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 6 6 9 10 12 12 12 13 14 14 15 18 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 5 6 7 8 10 13 7 6 11 21 27 15 19 30 30 70 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 29. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 3. 2. -1. 1. -4. -2. -7. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 16. 26. 34. 42. 47. 46. 50. 46. 48. 44. 44. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.9 35.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 NINE 09/08/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 25.9 to 2.2 0.66 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.25 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.77 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 125.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.78 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.4 30.0 to 128.0 0.51 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.36 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 13.1% 9.1% 6.0% 2.8% 7.8% 10.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 7.5% 3.0% 0.4% 0.2% 2.1% 3.2% 3.4% Bayesian: 0.9% 2.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% Consensus: 2.2% 7.7% 4.2% 2.2% 1.0% 3.5% 4.9% 1.5% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 NINE 09/08/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 35 38 46 56 64 72 77 76 80 76 78 74 74 76 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 36 44 54 62 70 75 74 78 74 76 72 72 74 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 39 49 57 65 70 69 73 69 71 67 67 69 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 31 41 49 57 62 61 65 61 63 59 59 61 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT