* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/07/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 64 55 47 40 33 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 64 55 47 40 33 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 66 58 51 45 36 28 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 39 42 42 43 46 51 58 60 53 43 27 14 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 4 5 4 -1 0 -5 -2 1 0 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 231 232 232 232 234 245 248 255 260 276 312 1 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.3 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.3 26.3 25.7 25.4 25.2 25.1 24.8 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 125 124 123 123 125 125 118 115 113 112 109 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.7 -54.6 -54.5 -54.8 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 42 41 39 39 36 33 30 26 28 28 27 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 18 16 15 13 12 11 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 18 9 -6 -5 -15 -37 -56 -76 -103 -122 -144 -133 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 4 16 7 -15 -2 7 -13 -28 -42 -65 -13 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 14 13 13 11 6 5 1 1 4 3 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 452 447 449 447 458 511 575 664 737 826 924 1031 1143 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.8 23.3 23.8 24.3 25.4 26.4 27.5 28.5 29.5 30.5 31.5 32.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 151.5 152.0 152.6 153.2 153.7 154.8 155.6 156.3 157.0 157.7 158.5 159.2 160.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. -19. -22. -24. -26. -28. -31. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -8. -12. -16. -22. -28. -34. -44. -52. -57. -57. -57. -62. -66. -70. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 8. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 1. -0. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -16. -20. -22. -22. -20. -18. -16. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -11. -20. -28. -35. -42. -50. -57. -70. -81. -90. -93. -95.-100.-104.-109.-110. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 22.2 151.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/07/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.19 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.19 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 622.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.15 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.72 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 34.4 to 2.3 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.68 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/07/18 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING