* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/06/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 86 76 68 58 44 36 26 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 86 76 68 58 44 36 26 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 88 81 73 66 52 42 32 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 31 35 40 42 45 46 56 54 47 32 24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 3 3 5 5 2 4 0 -2 4 0 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 235 233 229 231 232 232 240 244 248 252 289 323 348 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.4 26.0 26.1 26.2 25.9 25.6 25.3 25.1 24.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 132 128 127 122 123 124 121 118 115 113 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.5 -54.1 -54.1 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 41 41 43 43 39 38 36 34 29 29 30 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 21 20 20 18 15 15 12 9 9 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 29 31 31 20 -7 -6 -29 -49 -61 -96 -124 -119 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 17 -1 17 13 -1 -5 -10 -21 -46 -28 -59 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 10 9 15 12 11 6 6 1 1 4 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 470 443 429 421 420 432 489 546 613 696 799 922 1058 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.6 22.1 22.6 23.1 24.2 25.3 26.3 27.3 28.3 29.4 30.5 31.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 150.6 151.2 151.7 152.3 152.8 154.0 155.1 156.1 157.0 157.7 158.8 160.1 161.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 7 5 3 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -10. -16. -22. -28. -32. -36. -40. -42. -44. -46. -49. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -9. -15. -19. -26. -29. -32. -37. -42. -46. -49. -50. -55. -59. -60. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -4. -5. -7. -13. -18. -20. -23. -24. -24. -22. -20. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -9. -19. -27. -37. -51. -59. -69. -78. -85. -93. -99.-104.-108.-112.-114.-114. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 21.1 150.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/06/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.05 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 780.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.40 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 34.4 to 2.3 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.02 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/06/18 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING