* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/06/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 68 65 63 64 68 74 79 87 95 100 108 107 106 102 98 91 V (KT) LAND 75 68 65 63 64 68 74 79 87 95 100 108 107 106 102 98 91 V (KT) LGEM 75 67 63 62 62 64 69 76 85 94 100 106 107 106 100 93 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 23 23 19 13 8 2 2 8 12 10 11 13 11 16 18 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 8 5 3 2 3 0 1 -3 -4 -5 0 3 1 1 -6 -4 SHEAR DIR 229 231 234 239 238 222 84 182 212 202 142 145 124 141 143 160 183 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 28.3 28.6 29.1 29.3 29.7 29.5 29.3 28.7 29.1 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 134 135 135 135 134 139 144 153 157 165 162 158 148 154 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 118 117 118 117 117 116 120 125 134 139 147 143 137 126 129 109 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 -54.1 -54.5 -54.1 -53.9 -53.1 -53.1 -52.3 -51.9 -51.1 -50.9 -49.8 -49.4 -48.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.7 0.7 1.5 1.2 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 11 9 8 700-500 MB RH 47 46 45 44 44 46 48 50 51 52 53 53 54 52 54 55 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 21 22 22 24 27 27 31 32 33 36 37 39 42 44 41 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -31 -31 -30 -25 -18 -2 2 21 43 77 68 54 38 20 24 34 200 MB DIV 40 6 -2 3 10 -33 21 -4 47 -2 47 -10 46 7 89 53 61 700-850 TADV 10 3 3 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 1 1 5 -1 6 2 8 LAND (KM) 1852 1793 1737 1677 1620 1502 1404 1329 1272 1239 1208 1210 1025 714 452 283 112 LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.1 25.4 25.5 25.6 25.7 25.9 26.2 26.8 27.6 28.4 29.2 30.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.2 49.9 50.7 51.4 52.1 53.5 54.8 56.0 57.4 59.0 61.1 63.8 66.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 8 9 11 13 14 13 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 32 27 23 24 23 16 14 20 22 30 38 31 34 27 23 68 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -2. 1. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -6. -6. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 8. 13. 15. 15. 19. 19. 20. 21. 22. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -10. -12. -11. -7. -1. 4. 12. 20. 25. 33. 32. 31. 27. 23. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 24.8 49.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/06/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.27 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 25.9 to 2.2 0.23 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.18 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.28 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.78 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.11 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 681.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.15 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.13 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.2 95.0 to 0.0 0.87 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 3.1% 2.1% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 1.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/06/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/06/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 2( 7) 0( 7) 3( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 68 65 63 64 68 74 79 87 95 100 108 107 106 102 98 91 18HR AGO 75 74 71 69 70 74 80 85 93 101 106 114 113 112 108 104 97 12HR AGO 75 72 71 69 70 74 80 85 93 101 106 114 113 112 108 104 97 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 66 70 76 81 89 97 102 110 109 108 104 100 93 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT