* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/06/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 108 105 102 98 86 77 68 63 62 61 59 58 57 56 53 50 V (KT) LAND 105 108 105 102 98 86 77 68 63 62 61 59 58 57 56 53 50 V (KT) LGEM 105 107 105 101 94 81 71 65 62 61 62 63 64 63 59 53 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 1 3 3 3 3 7 9 19 18 20 15 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -2 -1 1 0 -1 -1 -1 1 4 7 10 10 16 17 SHEAR DIR 43 58 58 58 60 21 17 49 285 266 259 227 234 244 254 237 236 SST (C) 26.9 26.6 26.7 26.4 25.7 25.1 24.8 24.7 25.5 26.1 25.7 26.3 26.9 27.1 26.9 26.7 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 134 131 132 129 121 115 112 111 119 125 120 126 132 134 132 131 136 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -51.5 -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 46 45 44 41 40 37 35 32 31 30 30 30 32 33 36 36 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 26 26 28 26 25 24 23 23 24 23 23 22 21 19 15 850 MB ENV VOR 54 53 51 53 56 54 69 68 51 45 41 41 53 53 66 61 85 200 MB DIV 17 14 36 7 -16 12 0 0 1 13 3 17 -1 -6 -6 -11 10 700-850 TADV -10 -10 -6 -5 -4 2 -2 6 -1 0 0 0 1 4 9 6 11 LAND (KM) 1596 1667 1746 1828 1917 2079 1872 1606 1351 1111 894 699 512 346 194 26 43 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.6 18.9 19.4 19.8 20.6 21.1 21.5 21.7 21.9 22.0 22.0 21.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.6 127.9 129.1 130.4 131.7 134.3 136.9 139.5 142.0 144.4 146.6 148.6 150.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 13 13 13 12 12 11 11 10 9 9 8 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 8 4 2 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -15. -24. -32. -39. -44. -48. -51. -52. -53. -55. -57. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 9. 7. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 0. 0. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 0. -3. -7. -19. -28. -37. -42. -43. -44. -46. -47. -48. -49. -52. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 18.2 126.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/06/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.67 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.60 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 990.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.24 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.78 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.6% 2.0% 5.8% 2.1% 7.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 0.7% 1.9% 0.7% 2.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/06/18 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##