* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/06/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 77 76 75 76 75 70 68 62 60 59 60 58 59 55 48 43 V (KT) LAND 80 77 76 75 76 75 70 68 62 60 59 60 58 59 55 48 43 V (KT) LGEM 80 76 73 71 70 68 64 59 56 55 55 58 60 61 57 49 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 7 9 9 8 2 3 4 3 3 7 11 20 23 26 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 2 -1 -3 -2 1 0 -1 -4 -2 2 3 10 11 10 9 SHEAR DIR 64 71 68 69 63 61 119 55 90 287 266 263 254 251 250 269 257 SST (C) 27.2 27.6 27.3 26.8 26.9 25.6 25.5 25.4 25.3 25.9 26.5 26.4 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.6 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 137 141 138 133 134 121 119 118 117 123 129 128 126 128 129 130 134 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -51.7 -52.1 -51.6 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 50 49 47 45 42 38 32 29 28 28 28 31 32 34 36 38 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 25 25 26 27 25 24 22 21 20 21 19 21 19 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR 47 52 51 52 51 64 67 72 70 63 58 52 36 41 34 37 38 200 MB DIV 26 18 2 14 27 3 22 10 1 14 10 4 4 0 -7 -20 -2 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -8 -8 -4 -5 6 -2 6 0 1 0 0 -3 -2 -5 -1 LAND (KM) 1459 1525 1588 1660 1739 1925 2092 1851 1596 1343 1104 884 661 458 268 103 34 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.9 18.2 18.6 19.0 19.8 20.6 21.1 21.5 21.8 22.0 22.3 22.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 124.0 125.3 126.5 127.8 129.1 131.8 134.5 137.1 139.6 142.1 144.5 146.8 149.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 5 7 5 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 0 1 2 2 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -12. -16. -19. -21. -22. -24. -25. -27. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 1. 2. -0. -1. -4. -6. -7. -6. -7. -5. -6. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. -10. -12. -18. -20. -21. -20. -22. -21. -25. -32. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 17.5 124.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/06/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.25 1.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.08 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.57 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.27 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 693.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.06 -0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.64 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.84 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.02 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.98 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.42 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.4% 22.8% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 7.8% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/06/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##