* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/05/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 96 91 87 82 77 74 69 64 60 58 57 58 59 59 58 56 V (KT) LAND 100 96 91 87 82 77 74 69 64 60 58 57 58 59 59 58 56 V (KT) LGEM 100 97 93 89 84 77 72 65 59 55 53 54 56 59 61 60 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 17 17 15 13 11 9 7 3 3 1 5 3 9 18 19 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 3 2 0 0 -4 -2 -2 -4 -2 -4 1 2 3 8 9 SHEAR DIR 27 36 38 41 45 49 45 44 24 7 227 309 259 239 231 237 239 SST (C) 26.3 26.6 26.8 27.3 27.5 26.9 26.1 25.6 25.3 25.3 25.7 26.4 26.3 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 127 130 132 138 140 134 126 121 117 117 121 128 127 124 124 124 128 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -51.6 -52.1 -52.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 52 50 50 51 50 47 41 35 33 33 35 35 32 36 33 34 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 27 28 27 28 28 27 24 23 23 22 22 22 22 23 22 850 MB ENV VOR 37 36 42 49 52 61 76 68 75 58 58 44 45 35 41 42 49 200 MB DIV 21 17 34 26 2 15 32 11 -6 2 8 5 9 8 7 8 5 700-850 TADV -7 -9 -8 -4 -4 -11 -5 -1 -1 1 2 -2 1 2 4 3 3 LAND (KM) 1246 1317 1395 1485 1554 1700 1880 2064 1914 1639 1379 1134 919 733 560 379 264 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.0 17.2 17.5 17.8 18.6 19.5 20.4 21.1 21.7 22.1 22.4 22.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.7 121.9 123.0 124.3 125.6 128.3 131.1 133.8 136.5 139.2 141.8 144.3 146.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 14 14 13 13 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 1 3 3 5 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -9. -16. -24. -30. -35. -40. -42. -44. -45. -47. -50. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -5. -2. 1. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -13. -18. -23. -26. -31. -36. -40. -42. -43. -42. -41. -41. -42. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 16.8 120.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/05/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.03 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.14 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 784.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.32 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.01 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.73 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/05/18 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##