* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/05/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 85 82 76 72 62 56 52 51 50 50 61 67 74 78 75 72 V (KT) LAND 85 85 82 76 72 62 56 52 51 50 50 61 67 74 78 75 72 V (KT) LGEM 85 88 85 80 74 67 61 59 60 61 62 68 77 85 87 84 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 24 23 21 22 25 22 25 20 21 18 20 15 20 34 44 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 3 5 7 7 8 6 3 3 0 0 -5 -4 -4 -3 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 238 254 254 247 234 247 246 266 255 252 231 222 213 252 262 286 318 SST (C) 26.4 26.2 25.9 25.9 26.1 26.1 27.1 27.8 28.5 28.2 28.1 28.8 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.2 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 117 116 113 113 115 114 125 133 142 138 136 147 155 155 152 154 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 107 104 103 105 103 110 116 123 118 116 124 130 130 126 127 115 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -53.7 -54.2 -54.6 -54.7 -54.8 -54.9 -54.5 -54.7 -53.5 -53.6 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 10 9 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 49 49 49 49 48 50 50 51 53 54 54 56 58 66 64 54 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 21 19 20 20 19 20 20 21 20 27 29 33 36 36 37 850 MB ENV VOR 47 29 16 -1 -8 -25 -38 -44 -33 -29 -27 6 52 66 53 31 -82 200 MB DIV 11 10 12 13 16 27 -4 5 9 2 -3 20 1 49 31 -12 -19 700-850 TADV 21 18 19 13 21 9 4 0 -3 0 0 0 0 0 8 12 2 LAND (KM) 1976 1977 1985 1988 1946 1811 1702 1623 1571 1533 1528 1550 1606 1554 1412 1288 1136 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 21.0 21.5 22.0 22.5 23.6 24.6 25.5 26.3 27.0 27.9 28.9 30.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 43.4 44.4 45.4 46.4 47.4 49.2 50.7 52.0 53.1 54.1 55.0 55.8 56.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 12 9 7 7 8 4 12 20 23 17 20 30 32 27 26 20 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -17. -21. -24. -26. -27. -29. -30. -31. -32. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -14. -13. -13. -12. -10. -8. -7. -5. -3. -3. -6. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 3. 4. 8. 10. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -3. -9. -13. -23. -29. -33. -34. -35. -35. -24. -18. -11. -7. -10. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 20.4 43.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/05/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.87 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 25.9 to 2.2 0.18 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.6 to -2.7 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 702.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.13 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 4.2% 2.5% 2.1% 1.0% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% Bayesian: 4.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.5% 1.7% 0.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/05/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/05/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 8( 17) 4( 21) 0( 21) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 85 82 76 72 62 56 52 51 50 50 61 67 74 78 75 72 18HR AGO 85 84 81 75 71 61 55 51 50 49 49 60 66 73 77 74 71 12HR AGO 85 82 81 75 71 61 55 51 50 49 49 60 66 73 77 74 71 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 71 61 55 51 50 49 49 60 66 73 77 74 71 NOW 85 76 70 67 66 56 50 46 45 44 44 55 61 68 72 69 66 IN 6HR 85 85 76 70 67 63 57 53 52 51 51 62 68 75 79 76 73 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT