* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/04/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 105 105 100 94 83 77 68 63 59 53 52 50 50 50 47 41 V (KT) LAND 100 105 105 100 94 83 77 68 63 59 53 52 50 50 50 47 41 V (KT) LGEM 100 105 103 98 93 83 73 65 58 53 49 49 50 51 53 53 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 14 19 18 14 11 10 7 3 4 3 5 7 17 33 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 5 3 6 2 0 -1 -3 -4 -6 -6 -4 -3 3 6 -1 SHEAR DIR 46 48 48 41 52 53 51 32 61 100 41 225 336 261 266 260 267 SST (C) 27.5 26.4 26.1 26.8 27.0 27.0 26.1 25.5 25.8 25.6 25.1 25.5 26.2 25.4 25.6 25.2 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 139 128 125 132 135 135 126 120 123 120 115 119 126 117 119 115 113 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -52.2 -52.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 56 53 50 50 49 46 43 39 36 36 35 37 37 35 36 35 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 27 27 27 27 29 27 26 24 21 21 20 19 20 19 17 850 MB ENV VOR 34 37 37 37 40 62 65 72 60 56 32 28 19 44 40 17 -16 200 MB DIV 17 26 2 -5 11 -5 2 -3 5 2 0 8 -5 6 4 -10 -35 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -5 -7 -7 -2 -10 -8 -4 2 -2 3 -2 6 5 7 -2 LAND (KM) 1101 1165 1236 1310 1391 1536 1697 1884 2070 1863 1602 1359 1150 998 901 860 850 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.0 17.1 17.3 17.5 18.2 19.0 19.9 20.7 21.4 22.0 22.6 23.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.7 119.8 120.9 122.1 123.2 125.8 128.6 131.4 134.3 137.0 139.6 142.1 144.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 12 13 14 14 14 12 12 12 10 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 9 2 0 4 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -10. -17. -24. -30. -35. -40. -43. -45. -47. -49. -52. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -7. -4. -1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 7. 10. 11. 10. 6. 3. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 1. 1. -3. -7. -6. -7. -8. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 5. 0. -6. -17. -23. -32. -37. -41. -47. -48. -50. -50. -50. -53. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 16.9 118.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/04/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.02 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.83 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.15 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 763.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.32 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.01 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.68 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 15.5% 4.1% 5.6% 4.1% 2.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 13.3% 1.4% 1.9% 1.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/04/18 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##