* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/04/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 95 97 94 91 84 80 72 68 63 58 54 52 53 54 51 47 V (KT) LAND 90 95 97 94 91 84 80 72 68 63 58 54 52 53 54 51 47 V (KT) LGEM 90 97 98 95 91 83 76 68 60 54 49 47 46 47 50 51 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 12 16 18 14 11 11 11 3 5 3 5 4 18 29 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 5 4 4 2 1 0 -4 -2 -5 -5 -5 -3 3 6 4 SHEAR DIR 50 54 53 41 38 52 43 33 28 80 51 104 297 212 243 236 250 SST (C) 27.7 27.3 26.3 26.3 26.9 27.3 26.5 25.7 25.4 25.4 25.2 25.0 25.6 25.7 25.3 25.7 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 137 127 127 133 138 130 122 119 118 116 114 120 120 116 120 116 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -51.5 -51.9 -51.6 -52.1 -52.1 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 57 56 53 51 53 49 46 43 41 38 40 39 40 39 41 43 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 27 27 28 29 31 28 27 26 23 22 20 20 21 21 21 850 MB ENV VOR 19 32 36 38 34 51 77 67 58 53 26 13 9 32 45 36 38 200 MB DIV 6 17 13 7 14 32 15 16 4 0 6 1 0 11 24 14 -17 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -5 -6 -2 -8 -4 -8 1 -3 3 1 4 9 9 1 LAND (KM) 1032 1086 1148 1221 1300 1458 1590 1771 1974 2019 1748 1504 1283 1093 959 875 793 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.4 17.5 18.1 18.9 19.7 20.6 21.5 22.2 22.8 23.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.7 118.8 119.8 121.0 122.1 124.6 127.2 130.0 132.8 135.5 138.2 140.7 143.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 13 13 14 14 13 12 11 12 10 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 11 8 1 1 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -16. -22. -26. -30. -33. -35. -36. -39. -41. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 4. 4. 1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 7. 4. 1. -6. -10. -18. -22. -27. -32. -36. -38. -37. -36. -39. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 17.0 117.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/04/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.12 1.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.75 6.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.18 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.24 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 633.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.13 -0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.48 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.76 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.0 to -2.0 0.72 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 23.6% 22.8% 18.8% 15.0% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 17.2% 8.5% 7.9% 5.8% 2.7% 1.6% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 13.9% 10.5% 8.9% 7.0% 5.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/04/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##