* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/04/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 72 69 66 65 63 60 54 48 39 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 72 69 66 65 63 60 54 48 39 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 71 68 66 65 63 60 55 47 38 30 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 9 12 13 12 26 32 46 47 53 56 56 44 33 31 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 5 3 4 8 8 2 4 3 -2 -3 0 4 3 -4 SHEAR DIR 223 228 221 243 264 245 239 219 220 221 233 237 239 253 285 299 332 SST (C) 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.2 25.9 25.8 25.8 25.4 25.1 24.9 24.3 23.9 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 131 131 130 128 126 125 122 121 121 116 113 111 105 101 97 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -51.6 -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -54.2 -55.5 -56.8 -56.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 6 7 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 53 49 47 45 46 45 45 44 43 39 37 34 30 27 26 25 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 21 21 21 22 23 20 19 17 13 12 9 8 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 72 74 66 67 65 68 56 38 34 6 0 -17 -24 -39 -65 -95 -88 200 MB DIV 21 22 31 9 12 5 25 42 34 25 -2 5 1 -20 -30 -51 -42 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 -2 1 5 6 16 16 18 13 8 0 -2 -1 0 -4 LAND (KM) 1276 1150 1025 915 806 646 544 519 531 578 671 786 894 987 1108 1232 1375 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.0 20.0 20.1 20.1 20.6 21.5 22.7 23.9 25.3 26.7 28.2 29.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 142.6 143.8 145.0 146.0 147.1 148.7 150.0 151.1 152.1 153.2 154.1 154.9 155.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 10 9 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 5 6 7 6 6 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -5. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. -21. -23. -26. -29. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -10. -16. -24. -32. -39. -46. -50. -53. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -3. -6. -9. -13. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -10. -12. -15. -21. -27. -36. -47. -55. -65. -73. -81. -90. -97. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 19.9 142.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/04/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.25 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.28 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 594.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.72 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 34.4 to 2.3 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.49 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/04/18 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING