* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL072018 09/04/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 60 62 62 62 63 64 65 65 65 69 68 67 65 65 67 V (KT) LAND 55 57 60 62 51 35 29 28 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 62 65 55 36 29 28 27 27 27 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 12 9 14 17 10 11 9 14 19 33 35 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -4 -7 -5 -2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 308 324 301 298 325 331 335 322 285 260 253 255 297 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.8 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.3 29.2 29.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 156 153 149 161 163 162 162 162 155 154 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 145 143 140 134 129 136 134 132 129 129 124 124 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.3 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -54.3 -54.4 -54.7 -54.1 -53.9 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.3 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 8 9 5 7 3 5 1 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 67 67 66 64 69 71 76 76 81 74 63 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 11 11 9 7 6 5 5 6 12 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -56 -59 -44 -55 -80 -39 -30 -8 -45 -12 -40 4 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -16 -24 25 35 22 32 25 33 32 36 23 13 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 4 11 14 8 3 10 5 12 11 14 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 221 204 148 65 -44 -198 -360 -469 -576 -681 -821 -957 -999 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.3 28.1 28.9 29.8 30.6 32.0 33.1 34.0 34.9 35.8 37.1 38.5 40.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.0 86.3 87.6 88.6 89.6 91.1 92.3 93.5 94.3 94.8 94.5 93.7 92.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 12 11 9 7 6 5 6 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 27 22 23 13 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 1. -3. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -9. -11. -10. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 14. 13. 12. 10. 10. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 27.3 85.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072018 GORDON 09/04/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.50 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.39 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.15 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 220.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.68 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.54 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.18 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 16.8% 11.2% 8.6% 5.1% 9.8% 11.3% 12.9% Logistic: 3.7% 27.2% 16.4% 11.5% 8.1% 19.3% 13.5% 17.1% Bayesian: 1.3% 2.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 4.0% 15.3% 9.3% 6.7% 4.4% 9.8% 8.3% 10.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072018 GORDON 09/04/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072018 GORDON 09/04/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 60 62 51 35 29 28 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 55 54 57 59 48 32 26 25 24 24 24 25 26 27 27 27 27 12HR AGO 55 52 51 53 42 26 20 19 18 18 18 19 20 21 21 21 21 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 34 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT