* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/04/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 71 76 80 81 83 79 76 73 69 63 61 57 57 57 56 54 V (KT) LAND 65 71 76 80 81 83 79 76 73 69 63 61 57 57 57 56 54 V (KT) LGEM 65 71 77 80 81 81 77 71 64 57 51 48 46 46 48 50 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 13 14 15 16 11 13 9 6 2 1 2 8 9 22 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 7 5 2 5 7 1 0 -1 -1 -3 -2 -3 0 8 7 SHEAR DIR 57 60 53 53 44 39 58 48 54 56 86 50 276 295 238 233 244 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.3 27.9 27.6 27.7 27.0 26.2 25.6 25.1 25.7 25.6 25.0 25.4 25.6 25.4 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 147 143 140 142 135 127 121 115 121 120 114 118 120 117 121 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -51.6 -52.2 -52.1 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 -53.2 -53.7 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 65 62 60 60 58 54 55 51 48 46 43 41 38 37 37 40 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 23 25 25 27 26 26 26 25 21 21 17 17 17 18 21 850 MB ENV VOR 7 12 19 35 40 36 47 53 48 49 34 24 13 10 24 40 36 200 MB DIV 24 19 25 37 22 4 20 -8 19 6 5 4 -8 0 18 20 21 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -1 -2 -10 -2 -7 -6 -4 1 -1 5 0 5 5 1 LAND (KM) 889 948 1013 1070 1129 1275 1433 1558 1725 1929 2067 1815 1539 1270 1056 901 778 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 16.8 16.9 17.0 17.1 17.4 18.0 18.8 19.6 20.4 21.2 21.8 22.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.5 116.4 117.3 118.4 119.4 121.7 124.1 126.7 129.4 132.2 134.9 137.5 140.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 10 11 11 12 13 14 13 13 13 14 13 11 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 18 15 14 11 9 10 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 1. 1. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 15. 16. 18. 14. 11. 8. 4. -2. -4. -8. -8. -8. -9. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 16.8 115.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/04/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.48 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.58 6.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.32 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.32 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 346.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.48 -3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.88 6.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.76 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.11 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.62 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 32.6% 30.4% 27.2% 22.2% 15.5% 18.2% 13.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.6% 17.3% 10.6% 7.6% 1.5% 5.9% 1.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 2.8% 7.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 16.7% 18.3% 12.9% 10.0% 5.7% 8.1% 4.8% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/04/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##