* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/04/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 80 77 74 72 67 61 57 53 44 35 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 80 77 74 72 67 61 57 53 44 35 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 79 75 72 69 65 62 57 52 45 37 30 25 21 18 16 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 9 11 12 16 15 29 36 49 52 58 59 49 31 24 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 0 1 4 6 6 3 -1 2 -2 -6 0 2 2 4 SHEAR DIR 165 193 211 237 253 270 235 237 228 226 228 234 234 244 255 297 315 SST (C) 26.5 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.6 26.3 26.4 26.1 25.7 25.8 25.8 25.3 24.8 24.4 23.7 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 131 135 133 131 129 129 126 127 124 120 121 121 115 110 106 99 92 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.8 -54.1 -55.0 -55.5 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 2 2 700-500 MB RH 51 51 50 48 46 43 41 43 39 39 37 37 32 29 29 23 21 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 21 21 21 21 19 19 19 16 15 11 10 8 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 64 53 51 52 52 55 52 43 29 25 5 -3 -25 -37 -50 -55 -51 200 MB DIV 21 0 -5 -2 5 2 12 24 30 21 22 -3 3 -4 -18 -46 -54 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 1 2 3 6 12 12 15 12 6 -2 -8 -15 -17 LAND (KM) 1611 1448 1286 1156 1026 809 653 534 495 509 576 691 806 920 1067 1250 1443 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 19.9 20.0 20.2 20.3 20.4 20.9 21.7 22.7 24.0 25.5 27.1 28.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 139.4 141.0 142.5 143.8 145.0 147.1 148.7 150.2 151.4 152.5 153.6 154.6 155.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 13 12 10 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 2 5 6 4 4 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. -27. -29. -32. -35. -39. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -7. -12. -19. -27. -35. -43. -47. -48. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -11. -13. -18. -24. -28. -32. -41. -50. -60. -68. -78. -86. -94.-101. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 19.7 139.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/04/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.16 1.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.08 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.47 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.19 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 701.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.05 -0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.56 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.83 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.60 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.42 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.7% 15.1% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 5.1% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/04/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##