* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/03/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 67 70 73 74 74 73 68 65 61 59 55 54 55 57 56 V (KT) LAND 60 64 67 70 73 74 74 73 68 65 61 59 55 54 55 57 56 V (KT) LGEM 60 66 71 74 76 76 72 67 61 54 48 44 42 40 41 44 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 13 16 17 20 19 14 13 7 3 1 1 2 1 10 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 8 9 6 3 6 6 2 0 0 -2 -3 -1 -5 -1 5 SHEAR DIR 53 50 49 53 49 41 56 61 47 42 48 160 181 217 294 211 220 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.3 27.9 27.7 27.4 26.7 25.7 25.6 25.7 25.7 25.0 25.4 25.9 25.5 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 147 143 141 139 132 122 121 122 122 114 118 123 119 123 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 6 6 700-500 MB RH 68 65 62 62 60 56 54 51 50 45 42 40 37 37 34 34 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 21 22 24 25 26 27 25 24 22 21 18 16 15 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR -5 5 14 17 31 40 44 57 45 51 46 48 13 20 15 62 61 200 MB DIV 24 26 9 36 32 3 26 2 3 -6 5 4 -11 -10 11 20 14 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 -1 -1 -5 -8 -6 -8 -4 0 0 3 -3 1 3 3 LAND (KM) 868 915 968 1032 1083 1199 1352 1483 1632 1815 2016 1917 1637 1374 1124 916 741 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.7 16.7 16.8 16.9 17.2 17.7 18.4 19.1 20.0 20.8 21.7 22.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.9 115.7 116.5 117.5 118.4 120.5 122.9 125.3 127.9 130.7 133.6 136.5 139.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 10 11 12 12 13 14 14 14 13 13 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 23 17 15 14 11 11 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 8. 6. 4. 3. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 14. 13. 8. 5. 1. -1. -5. -6. -5. -3. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.6 114.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/03/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.55 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.58 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.22 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.32 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 278.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.57 -3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 6.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.50 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.14 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.65 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.6% 26.8% 22.3% 18.0% 14.2% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 5.1% 2.2% 1.4% 0.2% 1.7% 1.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 3.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.7% 11.8% 8.3% 6.5% 4.8% 6.1% 0.4% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/03/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##