* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/03/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 83 77 74 72 67 63 61 58 52 44 33 24 15 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 83 77 74 72 67 63 61 58 52 44 33 24 15 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 82 76 72 69 66 63 60 56 50 43 35 28 24 20 17 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 13 13 13 12 12 16 27 41 51 58 57 55 38 35 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 1 0 1 6 5 8 7 4 0 -1 -4 0 1 3 4 SHEAR DIR 155 163 188 210 226 239 257 237 234 220 223 225 229 232 236 250 260 SST (C) 26.7 26.5 26.9 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.3 26.5 25.8 25.7 25.9 25.5 25.2 24.6 23.7 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 134 134 132 129 128 126 128 121 120 122 117 114 109 100 87 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -52.3 -52.3 -51.6 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -54.5 -53.9 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 2 1 700-500 MB RH 49 49 51 51 47 44 40 40 42 41 41 38 33 27 25 29 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 23 23 23 24 23 23 22 21 20 18 15 13 12 10 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 77 63 51 52 57 59 55 59 40 33 20 9 -2 -4 -11 7 -2 200 MB DIV 35 22 -9 -9 0 6 13 18 30 16 14 -7 10 5 5 -14 -16 700-850 TADV -5 0 1 -1 -2 0 1 4 13 13 17 17 9 -1 -4 -25 -23 LAND (KM) 1801 1627 1453 1307 1161 922 739 588 488 496 542 657 751 820 989 1275 1546 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.6 19.8 20.0 20.1 20.3 20.6 21.1 22.0 23.4 24.9 26.6 28.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 137.6 139.3 140.9 142.3 143.7 146.0 147.8 149.4 150.9 152.1 153.2 154.2 155.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 14 13 12 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 10 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 4 2 5 6 5 5 2 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -12. -17. -22. -26. -29. -32. -34. -36. -39. -42. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -3. -6. -12. -20. -28. -36. -41. -44. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -14. -15. -15. -15. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -16. -18. -23. -27. -29. -32. -38. -46. -57. -66. -75. -83. -94.-102. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 19.4 137.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/03/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.12 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 749.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.48 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.02 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.7 56.6 to 0.0 0.56 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/03/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##