* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/03/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 60 64 67 70 71 71 67 65 64 60 59 56 55 55 55 V (KT) LAND 50 55 60 64 67 70 71 71 67 65 64 60 59 56 55 55 55 V (KT) LGEM 50 55 59 62 65 68 67 64 59 53 48 45 43 41 39 38 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 13 13 16 15 19 20 13 7 5 4 1 3 3 3 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 4 6 7 7 4 4 4 2 0 -1 -3 -2 -4 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 59 60 53 48 50 46 46 65 55 55 76 103 98 75 68 115 271 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.3 27.7 27.7 27.1 26.4 25.4 25.2 25.5 25.5 24.7 25.0 25.4 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 148 149 147 141 141 135 129 118 116 120 119 111 113 117 113 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -52.2 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 -0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 70 67 66 62 62 59 57 57 54 53 50 46 44 40 37 34 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 20 21 22 22 24 22 21 21 19 18 16 15 15 16 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -1 10 15 20 30 26 36 32 21 13 25 15 9 -8 -19 -14 200 MB DIV 25 29 25 14 16 25 12 35 5 24 13 -1 1 -10 0 16 25 700-850 TADV 0 2 1 0 -1 -1 -8 -4 -7 -4 -2 -2 0 0 -2 5 4 LAND (KM) 841 874 911 964 1021 1116 1221 1371 1488 1642 1838 2007 1898 1635 1423 1260 1115 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.8 16.8 17.1 17.6 18.2 18.9 19.7 20.4 21.2 21.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.3 115.0 115.7 116.5 117.3 119.2 121.2 123.5 125.9 128.5 131.2 134.0 136.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 9 9 11 11 12 13 13 14 13 12 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 31 22 17 15 14 9 13 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 5. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 9. 8. 6. 5. 2. 1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 17. 20. 21. 21. 18. 15. 14. 10. 9. 6. 5. 5. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.5 114.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/03/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.65 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.20 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.30 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 207.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.66 -4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 5.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.79 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.18 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.73 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.4% 27.2% 23.5% 18.9% 13.4% 19.1% 14.7% 11.4% Logistic: 7.1% 14.9% 6.0% 3.8% 0.6% 5.8% 3.0% 0.8% Bayesian: 1.3% 17.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 7.9% 19.7% 10.2% 7.7% 4.7% 8.5% 5.9% 4.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/03/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##