* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/03/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 94 89 84 81 74 69 67 62 59 55 49 41 34 24 18 N/A V (KT) LAND 100 94 89 84 81 74 69 67 62 59 55 49 41 34 24 18 N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 92 85 80 76 70 66 62 60 56 51 43 36 31 26 23 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 8 11 12 10 10 9 20 24 40 41 50 51 55 47 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 5 1 2 0 4 6 1 8 8 1 8 -2 2 -4 -5 2 SHEAR DIR 144 128 153 176 198 218 254 243 230 215 224 217 227 226 223 216 230 SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.3 26.8 26.9 26.6 26.5 26.3 26.4 26.0 25.6 25.7 25.6 25.4 24.8 24.4 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 128 133 134 130 128 126 127 123 119 120 118 116 110 107 96 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -54.4 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.5 -0.2 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 49 47 48 50 51 43 43 41 43 42 44 42 38 35 30 32 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 25 24 25 24 24 24 22 21 22 20 18 18 16 19 17 850 MB ENV VOR 81 80 61 57 56 54 57 47 45 34 26 18 6 3 -1 -2 17 200 MB DIV 27 31 20 -1 -4 18 15 19 28 40 26 44 18 29 12 11 14 700-850 TADV -2 -4 0 0 1 4 3 5 7 20 19 27 26 19 8 3 3 LAND (KM) 2002 1827 1653 1495 1338 1078 873 696 577 533 562 644 739 809 951 1170 1380 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.4 19.7 19.9 20.0 20.3 20.6 21.0 21.8 22.9 24.4 26.0 27.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 135.7 137.4 139.0 140.5 142.0 144.5 146.5 148.3 149.8 151.1 152.2 153.2 154.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 15 14 13 10 9 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 5 4 1 4 6 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -17. -24. -29. -34. -39. -42. -44. -46. -49. -53. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 1. -3. -8. -15. -23. -30. -35. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -6. -8. -10. -9. -10. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -16. -19. -26. -31. -33. -38. -41. -45. -51. -59. -66. -76. -82. -90. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 19.1 135.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/03/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.03 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.08 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.60 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 843.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.32 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.01 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/03/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##