* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/02/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 40 41 43 45 51 55 56 56 52 47 43 43 43 43 42 V (KT) LAND 40 39 40 41 43 45 51 55 56 56 52 47 43 43 43 43 42 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 41 42 43 43 43 43 41 37 33 28 25 22 21 20 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 13 15 18 17 17 19 19 15 17 8 4 1 1 3 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 7 8 5 4 7 6 9 9 5 0 0 -1 -3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 35 61 65 67 59 59 60 54 61 65 54 46 64 225 27 236 296 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.5 28.3 27.9 28.3 28.4 27.1 26.7 25.8 25.0 24.8 24.9 24.2 24.4 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 152 148 146 142 147 149 136 132 123 114 112 113 105 107 111 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 73 71 68 67 63 59 56 50 50 47 46 44 43 43 41 41 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 18 20 20 21 24 24 23 22 20 16 13 11 9 8 5 850 MB ENV VOR -45 -31 -19 -11 -4 19 50 47 51 66 65 61 40 32 -6 -15 -35 200 MB DIV 41 48 34 32 39 1 4 6 11 -3 11 16 -2 -10 -1 -9 15 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 0 -2 -2 -11 -8 -9 -15 -6 -3 0 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 741 739 743 772 806 903 996 1131 1287 1412 1574 1785 1925 1928 1698 1513 1330 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.2 17.5 17.7 17.8 17.9 18.1 18.5 19.0 19.7 20.5 21.2 22.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.1 113.7 114.2 114.9 115.5 116.9 118.7 120.9 123.2 125.7 128.3 131.1 133.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 8 10 11 12 12 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 23 20 17 13 11 9 16 29 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 17. 18. 19. 19. 19. 18. 16. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 10. 9. 8. 5. -1. -4. -5. -7. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 15. 16. 16. 12. 7. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.9 113.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/02/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.77 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.17 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.39 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 132.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.75 -4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.15 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.15 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.92 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 18.2% 13.3% 9.6% 0.0% 11.4% 0.0% 11.7% Logistic: 0.4% 2.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 6.8% 4.7% 3.3% 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% 3.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/02/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##