* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/02/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 91 92 89 88 79 71 64 59 58 55 53 50 45 38 33 25 V (KT) LAND 90 91 92 89 88 79 71 64 59 58 55 53 50 45 38 33 25 V (KT) LGEM 90 90 89 87 83 75 67 59 54 52 50 48 45 40 34 28 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 6 8 12 11 16 17 13 10 16 23 31 39 48 47 60 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 7 9 8 4 0 -2 4 1 3 5 7 5 2 4 -5 SHEAR DIR 99 87 85 96 117 113 165 203 222 231 211 225 221 213 222 223 241 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.0 26.7 26.8 25.6 25.8 26.0 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.0 25.9 26.1 26.1 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 141 136 133 134 121 122 124 125 124 124 123 122 124 125 117 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -51.3 -51.9 -52.2 -51.6 -52.1 -51.6 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -52.0 -52.1 -53.1 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 61 59 60 60 59 54 54 49 48 46 45 45 46 48 47 49 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 28 27 28 26 25 23 21 22 21 20 20 20 17 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 114 107 110 115 115 81 70 48 46 42 52 38 40 31 10 -6 -13 200 MB DIV 19 18 48 50 36 13 10 5 11 11 4 26 45 23 25 12 3 700-850 TADV -7 -10 -5 0 -1 -2 8 1 4 7 7 12 14 22 20 16 6 LAND (KM) 1707 1788 1879 1982 2092 1968 1652 1362 1118 910 757 651 568 497 494 557 620 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.3 17.7 18.1 18.5 19.4 20.2 20.8 21.2 21.5 22.0 22.7 23.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.7 128.2 129.7 131.3 132.8 136.0 139.0 141.8 144.2 146.3 148.0 149.5 151.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 15 15 15 14 12 11 9 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 7 17 18 6 4 5 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -0. -1. -5. -11. -17. -22. -25. -29. -31. -33. -35. -36. -39. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -4. -9. -14. -19. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 1. 2. 0. -1. -4. -6. -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. -1. -2. -11. -19. -26. -31. -32. -35. -37. -40. -45. -52. -57. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 16.9 126.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/02/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.17 1.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.64 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.37 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 510.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.28 -1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.48 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.80 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.55 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.7% 23.9% 18.9% 14.3% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.9% 5.8% 4.2% 1.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.9% 9.9% 7.7% 5.3% 4.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/02/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##