* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/01/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 47 52 53 57 58 61 60 57 55 52 49 50 54 62 68 V (KT) LAND 40 43 47 52 53 57 58 61 60 57 55 52 49 50 54 62 68 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 46 49 51 55 58 59 57 55 52 50 48 48 51 58 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 1 2 2 5 13 16 19 26 24 29 19 17 4 4 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 2 2 1 2 1 4 6 7 9 5 10 3 5 6 0 SHEAR DIR 149 149 218 356 188 232 263 251 256 239 242 237 235 237 261 258 123 SST (C) 26.4 26.0 25.8 25.8 25.5 25.7 26.0 26.4 26.8 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.8 28.4 28.9 29.3 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 118 115 113 113 110 112 115 118 123 127 126 129 133 141 149 156 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 110 108 109 106 106 109 111 115 117 115 116 119 124 131 137 134 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.9 -53.7 -54.2 -54.5 -54.8 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 68 67 64 64 64 61 58 58 55 55 53 51 50 47 49 48 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 22 23 21 22 21 23 22 21 21 20 19 20 21 24 26 850 MB ENV VOR 113 116 117 119 126 113 97 63 46 19 4 -16 -33 -47 -44 -40 -24 200 MB DIV 53 54 39 35 34 6 -7 14 19 -2 15 22 25 -8 26 3 30 700-850 TADV -3 0 2 2 1 8 19 21 24 29 27 23 13 12 11 6 2 LAND (KM) 1161 1296 1432 1578 1724 1994 2086 1992 1935 1940 1942 1831 1709 1599 1473 1349 1239 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.7 17.2 18.0 18.9 19.9 21.0 22.1 23.3 24.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 28.3 29.5 30.8 32.1 33.5 36.0 38.5 41.0 43.3 45.3 47.1 48.9 50.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 12 13 12 12 10 10 10 9 7 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 10 15 11 15 12 21 23 25 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 5. 3. 0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. -0. -0. -2. -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -10. -9. -8. -5. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 13. 17. 18. 21. 20. 17. 15. 12. 9. 10. 14. 22. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.4 28.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/01/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.5 25.9 to 2.2 0.99 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.75 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.42 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 198.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.70 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.40 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.36 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 21.1% 14.7% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.3% 35.1% 19.3% 11.3% 9.4% 22.6% 12.8% 4.4% Bayesian: 4.4% 19.1% 5.6% 0.9% 0.7% 4.6% 5.2% 0.1% Consensus: 6.6% 25.1% 13.2% 7.2% 3.4% 9.1% 6.0% 1.5% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/01/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 47 52 53 57 58 61 60 57 55 52 49 50 54 62 68 18HR AGO 40 39 43 48 49 53 54 57 56 53 51 48 45 46 50 58 64 12HR AGO 40 37 36 41 42 46 47 50 49 46 44 41 38 39 43 51 57 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 35 36 39 38 35 33 30 27 28 32 40 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT