* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVENTEEN EP172018 09/01/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 38 43 55 70 82 90 90 87 84 82 78 74 73 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 38 43 55 70 82 90 90 87 84 82 78 74 73 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 36 41 49 55 60 60 57 54 50 45 42 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 13 14 16 8 17 19 20 20 22 15 15 10 7 2 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 -3 0 0 2 3 4 5 5 7 11 8 4 0 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 24 16 13 5 13 20 56 54 54 57 44 48 57 50 93 352 347 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.1 27.6 26.1 25.7 25.8 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 154 153 153 154 153 147 146 146 148 146 142 126 121 122 115 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -52.1 -52.9 -51.7 -52.0 -51.5 -51.5 -51.2 -51.9 -51.3 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 83 80 78 77 76 73 71 69 67 66 63 62 62 54 49 45 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 12 13 14 15 20 27 31 34 34 33 32 30 27 23 21 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -26 -21 -23 -30 -31 -9 21 33 76 86 89 85 81 86 86 73 200 MB DIV 67 68 83 86 76 103 82 76 43 38 -6 -1 10 29 12 7 -5 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -4 -5 -5 -3 -2 -4 -6 -4 -12 -9 -11 -8 -1 1 -1 LAND (KM) 707 726 750 771 794 800 820 889 990 1095 1199 1327 1460 1613 1798 1970 1991 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.1 15.3 15.6 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.2 17.7 18.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.6 110.1 110.6 111.1 111.5 112.5 113.7 115.1 116.8 118.6 120.5 122.6 125.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 5 5 5 6 8 8 9 10 11 14 14 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 23 22 23 25 27 29 25 13 10 10 17 10 6 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 23. 26. 29. 31. 32. 33. 33. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -0. -3. -5. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 9. 19. 26. 32. 31. 28. 24. 20. 14. 10. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 8. 13. 25. 40. 52. 60. 60. 57. 54. 52. 48. 44. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.8 109.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172018 SEVENTEEN 09/01/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.89 7.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.21 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.61 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 28.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.87 -5.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.32 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.23 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.0 to -2.0 1.00 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 18.0% 16.8% 13.1% 0.0% 15.9% 15.5% 20.9% Logistic: 0.9% 7.2% 2.9% 1.1% 0.6% 4.0% 5.9% 4.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.4% 1.2% Consensus: 3.2% 8.5% 6.6% 4.8% 0.2% 6.6% 7.6% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 SEVENTEEN 09/01/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##