* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/01/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 86 83 84 82 78 71 66 64 61 61 63 63 60 57 55 50 V (KT) LAND 90 86 83 84 82 78 71 66 64 61 61 63 63 60 57 55 50 V (KT) LGEM 90 85 82 80 79 76 69 63 58 55 54 56 56 56 53 50 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 15 15 13 12 13 16 18 15 9 5 6 13 16 24 25 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 2 2 6 6 6 2 -1 1 2 -2 3 3 2 4 3 SHEAR DIR 49 62 77 94 97 105 119 140 173 204 230 211 222 224 213 218 227 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 27.9 27.9 27.2 26.5 26.2 25.7 25.9 25.9 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.1 25.8 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 149 144 145 138 130 127 121 122 122 124 124 125 124 121 122 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 -51.2 -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 66 64 65 60 60 58 55 53 52 49 47 46 46 45 44 41 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 27 29 28 29 27 26 25 24 25 26 25 23 22 23 21 850 MB ENV VOR 91 93 103 111 114 125 105 80 70 68 66 57 54 42 50 35 4 200 MB DIV 21 21 21 28 42 42 4 12 4 4 15 25 33 52 14 45 12 700-850 TADV -7 -3 -2 -6 -6 0 1 0 4 4 1 1 0 4 8 13 15 LAND (KM) 1483 1566 1652 1731 1811 2002 2166 1843 1558 1330 1126 956 782 642 533 479 469 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.7 16.9 17.6 18.5 19.3 20.0 20.6 21.0 21.3 21.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.2 124.3 125.4 126.7 128.1 131.1 134.2 137.2 139.9 142.1 144.1 145.8 147.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 12 13 14 15 15 14 12 10 9 8 9 9 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 14 16 17 11 20 8 2 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -8. -13. -18. -22. -26. -28. -30. -32. -33. -36. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 1. 0. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -3. -5. -6. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -6. -8. -12. -19. -24. -26. -29. -29. -27. -27. -30. -33. -35. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 16.2 123.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/01/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.26 2.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.08 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.15 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.32 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 415.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.40 -2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.48 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.97 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.14 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.83 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 15.2% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 2.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 5.9% 4.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/01/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##