* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX AL062018 08/31/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 37 43 50 56 64 65 69 70 68 67 65 67 71 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 37 43 50 56 64 65 69 70 68 67 65 67 71 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 33 34 37 41 47 52 54 55 54 52 50 50 51 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 12 12 9 3 3 2 2 6 13 20 19 20 21 23 21 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 4 6 1 1 3 4 4 -1 6 9 5 5 0 1 SHEAR DIR 49 82 122 125 77 70 296 238 246 235 254 254 243 241 242 222 218 SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.2 26.8 26.4 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.2 26.4 26.5 27.2 27.2 27.4 28.1 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 139 135 132 128 123 119 114 115 117 116 118 119 127 126 128 137 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 132 130 125 120 115 110 109 111 110 110 110 116 114 113 119 123 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.1 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 71 70 72 70 69 67 64 61 57 53 51 51 49 49 46 43 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 20 21 21 20 21 21 24 22 23 23 23 23 23 24 26 850 MB ENV VOR 76 65 63 80 97 122 131 122 113 102 81 53 28 15 3 10 15 200 MB DIV 20 20 28 32 35 25 14 11 27 17 12 4 18 18 23 3 6 700-850 TADV -7 -5 0 -1 -3 -2 2 3 11 12 11 18 17 11 8 0 -3 LAND (KM) 516 628 745 882 1020 1301 1592 1874 2127 2022 1968 1963 2016 1993 1915 1861 1810 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.9 14.2 14.6 14.9 15.6 16.2 16.8 17.5 18.3 19.4 20.6 22.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 22.1 23.3 24.4 25.7 27.0 29.6 32.3 34.9 37.4 39.8 42.0 44.0 45.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 11 10 9 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 14 16 10 4 2 2 0 0 0 2 3 3 16 10 11 17 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 22. 23. 24. 24. 24. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 10. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 4. 1. 2. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 20. 26. 34. 35. 39. 40. 38. 37. 35. 37. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.5 22.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 SIX 08/31/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 25.9 to 2.2 0.65 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.38 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.67 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 134.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.77 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.70 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.28 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 14.0% 9.5% 6.4% 3.4% 8.3% 11.1% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 12.0% 6.5% 1.5% 0.8% 2.6% 4.7% 2.9% Bayesian: 0.3% 3.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 2.7% 9.7% 5.5% 2.7% 1.4% 3.8% 5.4% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 SIX 08/31/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 35 37 43 50 56 64 65 69 70 68 67 65 67 71 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 41 48 54 62 63 67 68 66 65 63 65 69 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 36 43 49 57 58 62 63 61 60 58 60 64 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 28 35 41 49 50 54 55 53 52 50 52 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT