* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 08/31/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 125 119 113 107 95 88 86 85 79 71 68 62 63 64 65 66 V (KT) LAND 130 125 119 113 107 95 88 86 85 79 71 68 62 63 64 65 66 V (KT) LGEM 130 127 123 117 111 99 89 81 74 66 59 52 48 48 49 52 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 22 17 15 21 23 22 14 13 12 9 5 4 4 6 14 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -1 3 1 0 2 3 5 5 4 4 1 2 1 5 8 SHEAR DIR 83 82 69 70 71 54 76 93 99 130 145 207 273 230 220 229 224 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.0 27.9 26.9 25.8 26.5 25.8 26.2 25.9 26.2 26.3 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 151 149 148 144 144 134 123 130 122 126 123 126 126 126 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -51.5 -51.8 -51.5 -51.8 -51.6 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -52.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 67 64 64 65 66 66 64 66 62 56 53 52 47 45 43 42 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 27 28 29 29 29 29 29 27 24 25 21 21 21 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR 57 55 51 57 73 86 102 103 94 93 88 86 78 73 62 65 50 200 MB DIV 63 6 -3 25 32 45 37 44 29 -3 -1 -24 -7 19 23 24 38 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 1 1 -1 -1 -4 -2 0 1 2 4 0 7 6 15 LAND (KM) 1090 1162 1237 1313 1390 1557 1705 1834 1985 2178 1917 1631 1370 1116 890 717 574 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.2 17.0 16.8 16.6 16.3 16.5 16.9 17.6 18.4 19.2 19.9 20.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.2 120.0 120.8 121.6 122.4 124.2 126.2 128.4 130.9 133.7 136.5 139.2 141.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 12 13 14 14 13 12 12 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 14 18 18 16 13 17 14 23 6 0 5 0 1 0 2 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -8. -15. -26. -36. -45. -54. -60. -65. -66. -68. -70. -74. -78. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -10. -13. -17. -21. -20. -15. -9. -5. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 6. 7. 4. -0. 0. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -17. -23. -35. -42. -44. -45. -51. -59. -62. -68. -67. -66. -65. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 17.4 119.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 08/31/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 583.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.19 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.14 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.64 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 08/31/18 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##