* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 08/29/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 63 69 76 82 90 93 90 87 83 84 80 78 76 75 75 75 V (KT) LAND 55 63 69 76 82 90 93 90 87 83 84 80 78 76 75 75 75 V (KT) LGEM 55 61 67 73 77 84 89 91 90 89 89 84 78 73 68 67 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 12 12 15 18 15 17 11 10 6 0 4 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -2 -2 -1 -5 -1 -1 0 2 2 6 2 3 0 1 1 SHEAR DIR 56 70 115 101 58 65 45 46 52 60 82 85 79 92 97 339 273 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.0 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.0 26.6 26.8 26.5 26.5 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 154 152 152 152 149 144 148 145 141 135 131 133 130 130 130 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -52.3 -51.6 -51.9 -51.4 -51.9 -51.4 -52.1 -51.4 -51.9 -51.3 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 67 67 67 63 67 65 64 63 63 60 61 58 59 52 50 46 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 21 20 22 22 23 26 26 27 27 31 30 30 28 26 26 25 850 MB ENV VOR 17 15 18 12 23 38 47 67 83 96 98 100 112 106 107 103 92 200 MB DIV 66 81 83 37 19 27 27 -6 32 28 1 2 9 19 4 36 3 700-850 TADV -6 -8 -5 -3 -2 -1 -1 -2 -1 -2 -6 -2 -5 -1 -1 2 5 LAND (KM) 793 840 892 929 971 1091 1252 1434 1628 1793 1942 2091 2204 1909 1629 1351 1087 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.8 17.9 18.0 18.0 17.9 17.5 17.0 16.5 16.2 16.3 16.8 17.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.1 115.9 116.7 117.5 118.2 119.8 121.5 123.3 125.2 127.1 129.2 131.5 134.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 13 13 13 11 HEAT CONTENT 17 16 14 13 14 22 16 10 16 16 17 6 3 13 3 3 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 473 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 51.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 8. 10. 13. 13. 17. 16. 14. 11. 8. 7. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 13. 7. 2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 14. 21. 27. 35. 38. 35. 32. 28. 29. 25. 23. 21. 20. 20. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.6 115.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 08/29/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.65 12.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 9.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.61 9.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.50 7.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 260.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.59 -8.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 12.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.79 8.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.13 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 4.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.0 to -2.0 0.70 1.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 66% is 5.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 59% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 45% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 34.6% 65.7% 59.2% 48.3% 31.9% 44.9% 32.4% 14.7% Logistic: 27.7% 40.1% 33.9% 23.9% 18.5% 22.9% 17.8% 2.4% Bayesian: 8.2% 15.7% 5.4% 2.7% 1.2% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 23.5% 40.5% 32.8% 25.0% 17.2% 23.0% 16.9% 5.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 08/29/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##