* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP152018 08/29/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 59 61 60 60 56 50 42 31 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 57 59 61 60 60 56 50 42 31 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 57 60 61 62 62 58 50 40 30 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 16 15 13 16 18 30 40 51 53 54 49 45 43 36 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -7 -6 -3 0 0 3 1 6 0 4 2 7 1 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 315 322 317 302 290 276 239 239 230 227 228 234 241 245 239 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.4 27.9 27.0 26.5 26.0 25.7 25.4 24.6 24.6 24.5 24.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 144 145 147 147 142 133 128 123 120 117 109 109 108 108 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -51.6 -51.3 -51.3 -52.0 -53.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 71 71 69 69 76 72 68 66 66 63 60 57 54 46 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 19 18 19 18 16 15 12 10 7 6 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 30 34 35 43 50 43 53 70 53 20 -15 -46 -80 -91 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 2 0 2 18 2 50 55 78 48 23 13 -6 -15 -5 -22 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -3 -2 -4 2 11 13 7 11 13 9 7 9 -3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1881 1791 1702 1625 1547 1436 1364 1329 1281 1229 1181 1131 1120 1126 1176 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.7 15.0 16.1 17.6 19.4 21.0 22.6 24.2 25.8 27.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 138.0 138.9 139.7 140.4 141.0 141.7 142.0 142.1 142.6 143.4 144.5 146.1 147.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 10 12 15 17 14 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -15. -23. -31. -37. -42. -46. -50. -54. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -0. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -4. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -6. -8. -11. -12. -11. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 5. 5. 1. -5. -13. -24. -32. -41. -48. -53. -58. -62. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.2 138.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152018 MIRIAM 08/29/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.57 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.14 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.20 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 165.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.71 -4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 5.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.56 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.39 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.8% 18.6% 17.9% 14.4% 9.7% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 5.3% 1.4% 0.8% 1.2% 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 8.3% 6.5% 5.1% 3.6% 4.7% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152018 MIRIAM 08/29/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##