* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP152018 08/28/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 48 48 49 49 49 49 44 41 33 23 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 48 48 48 49 49 49 49 44 41 33 23 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 49 48 48 48 48 47 45 40 34 27 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 12 14 18 19 15 18 26 35 45 50 56 57 55 50 46 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -4 -7 -8 -2 0 0 3 1 1 -2 -6 -6 -5 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 329 320 314 318 321 288 279 251 249 236 225 224 224 229 233 241 258 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.4 26.9 26.6 26.0 25.6 24.9 24.4 24.3 24.2 24.1 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 139 142 142 141 136 132 129 123 119 112 108 106 104 103 101 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -52.6 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 69 69 70 72 73 71 76 75 70 65 67 66 66 63 60 52 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 16 17 18 17 18 18 16 16 14 12 11 8 7 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 8 13 24 28 31 44 54 57 54 64 45 -8 -23 -39 -49 -59 -74 200 MB DIV -21 -6 13 15 9 16 42 56 62 52 51 30 14 15 13 6 3 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -7 -7 -5 -3 1 9 15 12 19 25 30 30 24 6 0 LAND (KM) 2108 2004 1901 1809 1718 1570 1471 1404 1340 1302 1270 1242 1244 1267 1297 1310 1351 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.2 14.2 14.4 14.5 15.2 16.3 17.7 19.3 21.1 23.0 24.9 26.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 135.8 136.8 137.8 138.7 139.5 140.7 141.3 141.6 142.0 142.4 143.1 144.2 145.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 7 6 6 8 9 10 10 11 12 11 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 12 13 9 10 11 10 7 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -14. -21. -29. -36. -42. -49. -56. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. 4. 1. 1. -1. -5. -5. -8. -8. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -6. -9. -17. -27. -35. -44. -51. -60. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.1 135.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152018 MIRIAM 08/28/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.57 4.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.09 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.18 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 138.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.74 -4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.34 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.09 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.52 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 11.7% 11.6% 8.8% 0.0% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 4.1% 3.9% 2.9% 0.0% 3.2% 0.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152018 MIRIAM 08/28/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##