* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP152018 08/28/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 56 56 58 59 60 61 60 55 49 38 29 18 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 55 56 56 58 59 60 61 60 55 49 38 29 18 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 55 56 57 58 59 59 59 55 48 39 30 23 17 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 11 15 18 15 17 16 31 40 50 57 60 53 46 35 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -3 -5 -7 0 2 3 7 2 -1 0 0 -2 2 1 SHEAR DIR 325 325 314 320 321 304 293 258 245 237 230 229 230 227 232 238 248 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.8 27.9 27.5 27.0 26.7 26.3 25.6 24.8 24.4 24.4 24.3 24.0 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 140 140 141 142 138 133 130 126 120 112 108 107 106 102 101 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -52.7 -53.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -51.4 -51.8 -51.7 -52.5 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 70 69 69 69 70 72 75 74 70 67 64 68 67 64 62 57 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 17 19 19 20 21 21 19 19 16 15 13 10 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR -4 6 14 22 27 43 52 49 54 67 61 33 0 -12 -34 -48 -72 200 MB DIV -2 -13 5 2 -5 36 54 88 74 75 47 42 13 15 5 -11 -4 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -6 -7 -6 -2 -1 3 12 18 18 16 13 24 25 8 2 LAND (KM) 2210 2106 2002 1902 1802 1642 1514 1423 1354 1320 1281 1247 1249 1261 1289 1315 1348 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.2 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.9 15.9 17.3 18.9 20.7 22.7 25.0 27.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 134.8 135.8 136.8 137.8 138.7 140.1 141.0 141.5 141.9 142.2 142.9 144.2 145.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 8 6 7 8 9 10 12 13 12 11 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 10 13 13 10 10 10 8 6 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. -0. -3. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -6. -10. -17. -25. -32. -39. -45. -50. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 5. 4. -0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. -0. -6. -17. -26. -37. -46. -53. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.1 134.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152018 MIRIAM 08/28/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.52 4.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.16 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.16 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 164.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.71 -4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 5.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.50 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.52 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.7% 16.0% 15.4% 12.1% 8.2% 11.4% 8.4% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 3.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.8% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 6.7% 5.4% 4.2% 2.8% 3.9% 3.1% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152018 MIRIAM 08/28/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##