* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP152018 08/27/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 56 60 63 66 69 67 70 69 72 70 66 60 50 37 27 V (KT) LAND 45 51 56 60 63 66 69 67 70 69 72 70 66 60 50 37 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 53 56 58 62 64 63 64 66 67 66 60 51 40 28 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 5 7 8 17 16 14 11 9 13 27 40 51 54 57 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 3 2 3 -1 -1 0 -4 -2 0 2 3 2 1 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 349 344 7 360 335 328 337 329 330 264 237 226 214 219 219 216 225 SST (C) 28.5 28.2 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.4 27.2 27.3 27.7 27.6 27.3 26.8 26.0 25.5 24.4 24.7 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 147 145 145 144 138 136 136 140 139 137 132 124 119 108 112 110 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -52.7 -53.2 -52.0 -52.1 -51.7 -51.1 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 74 71 72 71 72 73 71 71 71 73 75 69 66 62 61 66 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 14 15 14 17 17 18 19 21 21 22 23 21 17 14 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -21 -21 -17 -10 6 17 30 41 36 41 40 46 31 2 -15 -37 200 MB DIV 53 70 53 35 30 2 29 21 65 62 106 98 104 77 49 14 4 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 -2 -5 -5 -6 -3 -1 2 6 14 30 50 36 29 LAND (KM) 1992 2085 2164 2246 2330 2306 2101 1909 1728 1565 1448 1374 1313 1276 1218 1179 1194 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.5 15.6 17.1 19.0 21.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.3 128.5 129.6 130.7 131.8 133.9 135.9 137.8 139.4 140.6 141.3 141.7 142.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 8 8 8 9 10 12 13 13 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 25 15 11 11 13 10 11 7 8 8 7 5 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 14. 13. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -5. -11. -17. -26. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. 3. 3. 6. 6. 9. 9. 9. 9. 7. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 15. 18. 21. 24. 22. 25. 25. 27. 25. 21. 15. 5. -8. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.8 127.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152018 MIRIAM 08/27/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.68 9.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 7.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.71 8.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.45 5.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 118.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.76 -8.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 6.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.91 7.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.13 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.66 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 4.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 26.3% 55.9% 40.8% 26.9% 18.6% 25.3% 21.8% 12.6% Logistic: 53.3% 73.8% 59.0% 52.4% 13.8% 39.2% 10.3% 12.3% Bayesian: 19.6% 51.5% 24.0% 14.1% 2.9% 17.5% 2.9% 0.1% Consensus: 33.1% 60.4% 41.3% 31.1% 11.7% 27.3% 11.7% 8.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152018 MIRIAM 08/27/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##